ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Northern England Round 18 2026

Leek Town vs Ilkeston Town

Leek Town Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ilkeston Town Away · Elo 1,486
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Leek Town win
Leek Town winPick
50.2%
Draw
25.1%
Ilkeston Town win
24.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.547.7%
Under 2.552.3%

How much we know

Leek Town history69 matches
Ilkeston Town history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Leek Town are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Leek Town are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,486. On rating alone Leek Town would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.25 goals a game over 69 matches for Leek Town, against 1.30 over 70 for Ilkeston Town.

  • Defences are close

    Leek Town concede 1.25 a game, Ilkeston Town 1.30.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    46% of Leek Town matches, against 54% for Ilkeston Town. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leek Town
Ilkeston Town
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.5
ELO
1485.6
69
ELO · Matches
70
1518.5
Current Team ELO
1485.6
1485.6
Current Opponent ELO
1518.5
32.90
Current ELO Difference
-32.90
0.55
Expected score
0.45
69
History Matches
70
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.36
Overperformance
49.24
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
70
1.39
PPG
1.33
39.1%
Win rate
37.1%
21.7%
Draw rate
21.4%
39.1%
Loss rate
41.4%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
35
1.53
PPG
1.11
44.4%
Win rate
28.6%
19.4%
Draw rate
25.7%
36.1%
Loss rate
45.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
36
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.25
Goals for per game
1.30
72.5%
Scoring rate
65.7%
49.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.09
75.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
47.2%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.83
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
69
History Matches
70
1.25
Goals Mean
1.30
1.15
Goals Std
1.30
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
65.7%
30.4%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
15.9%
Scored 3+ rate
18.6%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.09
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.30
72.5%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.40
66.7%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
69
History Matches
70
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.04
Conceded Std
1.09
39.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.7%
10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
70
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.90
2.96
Stability score
3.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
69
18
Lead Matches
19
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.82
23
Trailing Matches
18
26.1%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.68
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
54
Normal Rest History Matches
55
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
9
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
1.17
20.0%
Win rate
33.3%
40.0%
Draw rate
16.7%
40.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
5
Current Competition Matches
6
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.17
0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.25
Portability PPG Range
0.83
52.03
Portability Score
60.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO32.90
PPG0.06
GF-0.05
GA-0.05
PPG-0.17
PPG0.41
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.05
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate6.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Conceded 2+ rate3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.30
Stability score-0.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.61
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate9.9%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate3.9%
Trailing Win Rate3.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.87
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-8.53
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO32.90
Current Opponent ELO-32.90
Current ELO Difference65.79
Expected score0.09
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leek Town

L
Guiseley AFC4–1Leek Town3 Nov · away
Pick: Guiseley AFC 50% · hit
L
Curzon Ashton2–1Leek Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Curzon Ashton 42% · hit
L
Bury5–3Leek Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Bury 42% · hit
W
Leek Town4–1Bootle24 Oct · home
Pick: Leek Town 51% · hit
W
Lancaster City1–2Leek Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Leek Town 39% · hit

Ilkeston Town

W
Ilkeston Town1–0Hyde United31 Oct · home
Pick: Ilkeston Town 46% · hit
W
Ilkeston Town2–0Avro17 Oct · home
Pick: Avro 53% · missed
L
Gainsborough Trinity3–1Ilkeston Town13 Oct · away
Pick: Gainsborough Trinity 62% · hit
L
Ilkeston Town0–2Guiseley AFC6 Oct · home
Pick: Guiseley AFC 47% · hit
L
Ilkeston Town0–2Quorn31 Aug · home
Pick: Ilkeston Town 53% · missed

About this match

Leek Town and Ilkeston Town meet in Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Leek Town win 50.2%, draw 25.1%, Ilkeston Town win 24.7%. The pick is Leek Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 47.7%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.