ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool

AFC Hornchurch Home · Elo 1,589
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Blackpool Away · Elo 1,530
Hornchurch Stadium, London Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: AFC Hornchurch win
AFC Hornchurch winPick
46.5%
Draw
22.6%
Blackpool win
30.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.7%
Under 2.539.3%

How much we know

AFC Hornchurch history88 matches
Blackpool history85 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why AFC Hornchurch are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • AFC Hornchurch are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,530. On rating alone AFC Hornchurch would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • AFC Hornchurch score more

    1.88 goals a game over 88 matches for AFC Hornchurch, against 1.39 over 85 for Blackpool.

  • Defences are close

    AFC Hornchurch concede 1.31 a game, Blackpool 1.34.

  • AFC Hornchurch games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of AFC Hornchurch matches, against 54% for Blackpool. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AFC Hornchurch
Blackpool
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.9
ELO
1529.8
88
ELO · Matches
85
1588.9
Current Team ELO
1529.8
1529.8
Current Opponent ELO
1588.9
59.12
Current ELO Difference
-59.12
0.58
Expected score
0.42
88
History Matches
85
0.05
Residual Mean
0.02
54.09
Overperformance
51.77
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
88
Matches
85
1.75
PPG
1.41
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
21.2%
25.0%
Loss rate
38.8%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
54.1%
38.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals
100
45
Matches
41
1.80
PPG
1.07
51.1%
Win rate
29.3%
26.7%
Draw rate
19.5%
22.2%
Loss rate
51.2%
82.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.2%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
31.1%
Over 3.5 rate
24.4%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
45
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.88
Goals for per game
1.39
86.4%
Scoring rate
75.3%
61.4%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.12
88.9%
Scoring rate
68.3%
62.2%
BTTS rate
51.2%
88
History Matches
85
1.88
Goals Mean
1.39
1.36
Goals Std
1.17
86.4%
Scored 1+ rate
75.3%
56.8%
Scored 2+ rate
38.8%
27.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.31
Goals against per game
1.34
69.3%
Conceding rate
74.1%
1.16
Goals against per game
1.46
66.7%
Conceding rate
78.0%
88
History Matches
85
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.24
Conceded Std
1.17
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.16
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.0%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
31.7%
30.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
88
History Matches
85
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.78
5.36
Stability score
3.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
86
Eligible Matches
85
38
Lead Matches
25
71.1%
Lead Win Rate
72.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.79
19
Trailing Matches
25
36.8%
Non-loss rate
28.0%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
86
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.99
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
7
1.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.57
75
Normal Rest History Matches
69
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
6
Long Rest History Matches
8
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.95
Portability PPG Range
1.25
62.34
Portability Score
56.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
88
Clean History Matches
85
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO59.12
PPG0.34
GF0.49
GA-0.03
PPG0.73
PPG0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate11.1%
Scored 2+ rate18.0%
Scored 3+ rate8.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.03
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score2.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.36
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate8.8%
Trailing Win Rate1.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.30
Portability Score5.96
Rest days3.30
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.60
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO59.12
Current Opponent ELO-59.12
Current ELO Difference118.2
Expected score0.17
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AFC Hornchurch

W
AFC Hornchurch2–0West Ham United U213 Nov · home
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 51% · hit
L
AFC Fylde3–1AFC Hornchurch30 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 46% · missed
L
AFC Hornchurch1–2Yeovil Town27 Oct · home
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 44% · missed
L
Hartlepool2–1AFC Hornchurch24 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 37% · missed
W
Uxbridge0–4AFC Hornchurch17 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Hornchurch 53% · hit

Blackpool

D
Sheffield Wednesday1–1Blackpool1 Nov · away
Pick: Sheffield Wednesday 38% · missed
W
Blackpool3–2Aston Villa U2127 Oct · home
Pick: Blackpool 64% · hit
L
Blackpool1–4Mansfield Town24 Oct · home
Pick: Blackpool 47% · missed
W
Blackpool2–0Milton Keynes Dons20 Oct · home
Pick: Blackpool 46% · hit
L
Leyton Orient2–0Blackpool17 Oct · away
Pick: Leyton Orient 46% · hit

About this match

AFC Hornchurch and Blackpool meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Hornchurch Stadium, London. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: AFC Hornchurch win 46.5%, draw 22.6%, Blackpool win 30.9%. The pick is AFC Hornchurch win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.7%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.