ScoreProb
FA Cup England 1/128-finals 2026

Boreham Wood vs Wigan

Boreham Wood Home · Elo 1,680
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wigan Away · Elo 1,486
Meadow Park, Borehamwood Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Boreham Wood win
Boreham Wood winPick
53.4%
Draw
20.2%
Wigan win
26.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%

How much we know

Boreham Wood history99 matches
Wigan history87 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.4%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Boreham Wood are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Boreham Wood are rated 194 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,680 against 1,486. On rating alone Boreham Wood would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Boreham Wood score far more

    2.18 goals a game over 99 matches for Boreham Wood, against 1.00 over 87 for Wigan.

  • Defences are close

    Boreham Wood concede 1.30 a game, Wigan 1.21.

  • Boreham Wood games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Boreham Wood matches, against 32% for Wigan. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Boreham Wood
Wigan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1679.7
ELO
1485.8
99
ELO · Matches
87
1679.7
Current Team ELO
1485.8
1485.8
Current Opponent ELO
1679.7
193.9
Current ELO Difference
-193.9
0.75
Expected score
0.25
99
History Matches
87
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.01
57.67
Overperformance
49.54
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
3.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
0.80
3.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
3.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.72
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
99
Matches
87
1.99
PPG
1.21
60.6%
Win rate
28.7%
17.2%
Draw rate
34.5%
22.2%
Loss rate
36.8%
87.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.8%
73.7%
Over 2.5 rate
32.2%
42.4%
Over 3.5 rate
16.1%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
53
Matches
43
2.25
PPG
1.02
69.8%
Win rate
18.6%
15.1%
Draw rate
46.5%
15.1%
Loss rate
34.9%
83.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.1%
69.8%
Over 2.5 rate
34.9%
35.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
53
History Matches
43
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.18
Goals for per game
1.00
90.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
59.6%
BTTS rate
46.0%
2.23
Goals for per game
1.02
90.6%
Scoring rate
67.4%
54.7%
BTTS rate
55.8%
99
History Matches
87
2.18
Goals Mean
1.00
1.37
Goals Std
0.95
90.9%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
23.0%
39.4%
Scored 3+ rate
9.2%
2.23
Venue Goals Mean
1.02
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
1.21
65.7%
Conceding rate
70.1%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.42
62.3%
Conceding rate
76.7%
99
History Matches
87
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.21
1.22
Conceded Std
1.15
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.3%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
37.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
37.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
9.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.6%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
99
History Matches
87
0.86
Result entropy
1.00
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.49
14.41
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
98
Eligible Matches
87
45
Lead Matches
23
84.4%
Lead Win Rate
60.9%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.74
21
Trailing Matches
29
33.3%
Non-loss rate
27.6%
19.0%
Trailing Win Rate
3.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
98
Halftime Coverage Matches
87
0.95
First Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.15
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.80
79
Normal Rest History Matches
72
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
11
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
11
Competition Season Count
11
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.83
Portability PPG Range
1.67
45.57
Portability Score
50.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
99
Clean History Matches
87
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO193.9
PPG0.78
GF1.18
GA0.10
PPG1.22
PPG1.80
PPG1.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches12
Goals Mean1.18
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate24.2%
Scored 2+ rate43.7%
Scored 3+ rate30.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches12
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Conceded 2+ rate8.1%
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.37
Stability score13.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches22
Lead Win Rate23.6%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate5.7%
Trailing Win Rate15.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.17
Portability Score-5.07
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.20
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.80
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO193.9
Current Opponent ELO-193.9
Current ELO Difference387.9
Expected score0.51
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance8.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.40

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Boreham Wood

W
Boreham Wood4–3Hartlepool31 Oct · home
Pick: Boreham Wood 57% · hit
W
Woking1–2Boreham Wood27 Oct · away
Pick: Boreham Wood 62% · hit
W
Boreham Wood4–0AFC Fylde24 Oct · home
Pick: Boreham Wood 56% · hit
W
Boreham Wood7–1Middlesbrough U2120 Oct · home
Pick: Boreham Wood 42% · hit
W
Boreham Wood3–2Woking17 Oct · home
Pick: Boreham Wood 51% · hit

Wigan

W
Wigan3–2Bromley31 Oct · home
Pick: Bromley 40% · missed
L
Leicester3–0Wigan27 Oct · away
Pick: Leicester 48% · hit
L
Huddersfield2–1Wigan24 Oct · away
Pick: Huddersfield 56% · hit
L
Oxford United2–1Wigan20 Oct · away
Pick: Oxford United 51% · hit
W
Wigan1–0Reading17 Oct · home
Pick: Reading 42% · missed

About this match

Boreham Wood and Wigan meet in FA Cup on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Meadow Park, Borehamwood. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Boreham Wood win 53.4%, draw 20.2%, Wigan win 26.4%. The pick is Boreham Wood win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.8%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.