ScoreProb
Division 2 Saudi Arabia Round 7 2026

Afif vs Al Rayan

Afif Home · Elo 1,457
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Rayan Away · Elo 1,562
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Rayan win
Afif win
30.4%
Draw
20.5%
Al Rayan winPick
49.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.1%
No42.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.9%
Under 2.537.1%

How much we know

Afif history13 matches
Al Rayan history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 12:25 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Al Rayan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Rayan are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,562 against 1,457. On rating alone Al Rayan would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Al Rayan score far more

    1.08 goals a game over 13 matches for Afif, against 2.23 over 13 for Al Rayan.

  • Al Rayan concede fewer

    Afif concede 1.69 a game, Al Rayan 1.31.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of Afif matches, against 77% for Al Rayan. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Afif
Al Rayan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.7
ELO
1561.6
13
ELO · Matches
13
1456.7
Current Team ELO
1561.6
1561.6
Current Opponent ELO
1456.7
-104.9
Current ELO Difference
104.9
0.35
Expected score
0.65
13
History Matches
13
-0.17
Residual Mean
0.23
43.18
Overperformance
59.02
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
3.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
2.60
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
13
Matches
13
0.85
PPG
2.23
23.1%
Win rate
69.2%
15.4%
Draw rate
15.4%
61.5%
Loss rate
15.4%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
76.9%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
7
1.00
PPG
2.00
33.3%
Win rate
57.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
66.7%
Loss rate
14.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
6
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
2.23
76.9%
Scoring rate
100.0%
69.2%
BTTS rate
76.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.14
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
71.4%
13
History Matches
13
1.08
Goals Mean
2.23
0.83
Goals Std
0.97
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
23.1%
Scored 2+ rate
69.2%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
46.2%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
2.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.69
Goals against per game
1.31
76.9%
Conceding rate
76.9%
2.17
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
71.4%
13
History Matches
13
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.20
Conceded Std
0.91
61.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.2%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
2.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
13
History Matches
13
0.84
Result entropy
0.76
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.14
15.79
Stability score
24.40
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
10
2
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
2
20.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
217.0
Rest days
218.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
9
0.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.11
3
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
13
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-104.9
PPG-1.38
GF-1.15
GA0.38
PPG-1.00
PPG-2.40
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate23.1%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-1.15
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.46
Scored 3+ rate-0.38
Venue Goals Mean-0.64
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std0.29
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Conceded Mean1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches0
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.35
Stability score-8.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.58
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.30
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.22
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Current Team ELO-104.9
Current Opponent ELO104.9
Current ELO Difference-209.8
Expected score-0.29
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.40
Overperformance-15.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.34

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Afif

L
Al Qalah2–0Afif6 Nov · away
Pick: Al Qalah 39% · hit
L
Afif0–2Al Nairyah2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Nairyah 42% · hit
L
Afif0–1Al-Ain28 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Ain 47% · hit
L
Baish2–1Afif24 Oct · away
Pick: Baish 38% · hit
D
Afif1–1Al Baten16 Oct · home
Pick: Al Baten 48% · missed

Al Rayan

D
Al Rayan1–1Al Qalah2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Rayan 42% · missed
D
Arar2–2Al Rayan28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Rayan 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Afif and Al Rayan meet in Division 2 on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 12:25 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Afif win 30.4%, draw 20.5%, Al Rayan win 49.1%. The pick is Al Rayan win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.9%. Both teams to score: 57.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.