ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain Group 13 - 7 2026

Águilas II vs UCAM Murcia II

Águilas II Home · Elo 1,556
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
UCAM Murcia II Away · Elo 1,552
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Águilas II win
Águilas II winPick
38.8%
Draw
28.8%
UCAM Murcia II win
32.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.3%
Under 2.550.7%

How much we know

Águilas II history49 matches
UCAM Murcia II history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Águilas II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,556 against 1,552. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.37 goals a game over 49 matches for Águilas II, against 1.45 over 49 for UCAM Murcia II.

  • Defences are close

    Águilas II concede 1.06 a game, UCAM Murcia II 1.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    49% of Águilas II matches, against 45% for UCAM Murcia II. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Águilas II
UCAM Murcia II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.8
ELO
1552.3
49
ELO · Matches
49
1555.8
Current Team ELO
1552.3
1552.3
Current Opponent ELO
1555.8
3.45
Current ELO Difference
-3.45
0.50
Expected score
0.50
49
History Matches
49
0.06
Residual Mean
0.06
54.57
Overperformance
54.21
0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
2.50
0.90
Goals against per game
1.30
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
1.67
PPG
1.47
46.9%
Win rate
34.7%
26.5%
Draw rate
42.9%
26.5%
Loss rate
22.4%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
49.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.9%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
23
2.04
PPG
1.65
59.3%
Win rate
43.5%
25.9%
Draw rate
34.8%
14.8%
Loss rate
21.7%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
27
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.37
Goals for per game
1.45
73.5%
Scoring rate
73.5%
49.0%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.70
81.5%
Scoring rate
78.3%
51.9%
BTTS rate
52.2%
49
History Matches
49
1.37
Goals Mean
1.45
1.08
Goals Std
1.25
73.5%
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
46.9%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
12.2%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
1.10
63.3%
Conceding rate
69.4%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.17
59.3%
Conceding rate
69.6%
49
History Matches
49
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.08
Conceded Std
0.97
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
28.6%
10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
26.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.59
3.60
Stability score
2.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
16
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.75
10
Trailing Matches
11
30.0%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
178.1
Rest days
178.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.89
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.68
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.58
Portability PPG Range
0.51
63.39
Portability Score
66.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO3.45
PPG0.20
GF-0.08
GA-0.04
PPG0.38
PPG1.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate4.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.38
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate22.1%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score-2.78
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.54
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Current Team ELO3.45
Current Opponent ELO-3.45
Current ELO Difference6.91
Expected score0.01
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Águilas II

W
Águilas II2–0Algar1 Nov · home
Pick: Águilas II 68% · hit
W
Los Garres1–2Águilas II24 Oct · away
Pick: Águilas II 47% · hit
D
Águilas II1–1Unión Molinense4 Oct · home
Pick: Unión Molinense 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

UCAM Murcia II

W
UCAM Murcia II2–1Alcantarilla24 Oct · home
Pick: UCAM Murcia II 64% · hit
L
Olímpico Totana1–0UCAM Murcia II4 Oct · away
Pick: UCAM Murcia II 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Águilas II and UCAM Murcia II meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Águilas II win 38.8%, draw 28.8%, UCAM Murcia II win 32.4%. The pick is Águilas II win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.3%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.