ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain Group 13 - 7 2026

Cartagena LU II vs Santomera

Cartagena LU II Home · Elo 1,432
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Santomera Away · Elo 1,448
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 07:24 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Santomera win
Cartagena LU II win
34.0%
Draw
23.8%
Santomera winPick
42.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.8%
No49.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.6%
Under 2.546.4%

How much we know

Cartagena LU II history50 matches
Santomera history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 07:24 UTC
  2. Re-published 5 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Santomera are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,432 against 1,448. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Santomera score more

    0.96 goals a game over 50 matches for Cartagena LU II, against 1.37 over 54 for Santomera.

  • Cartagena LU II concede fewer

    Cartagena LU II concede 1.18 a game, Santomera 1.59.

  • Santomera games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of Cartagena LU II matches, against 59% for Santomera. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cartagena LU II
Santomera
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1432.5
ELO
1447.9
50
ELO · Matches
54
1432.5
Current Team ELO
1447.9
1447.9
Current Opponent ELO
1432.5
-15.45
Current ELO Difference
15.45
0.48
Expected score
0.52
50
History Matches
54
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.04
45.10
Overperformance
46.75
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.80
0.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.90
0.70
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.30
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
54
0.98
PPG
1.24
24.0%
Win rate
33.3%
26.0%
Draw rate
24.1%
50.0%
Loss rate
42.6%
62.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.1%
38.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
26
0.96
PPG
1.31
20.8%
Win rate
34.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
26.9%
45.8%
Loss rate
38.5%
54.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.96
Goals for per game
1.37
60.0%
Scoring rate
68.5%
44.0%
BTTS rate
53.7%
1.08
Goals for per game
1.54
58.3%
Scoring rate
76.9%
45.8%
BTTS rate
57.7%
50
History Matches
54
0.96
Goals Mean
1.37
1.04
Goals Std
1.28
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.5%
24.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.7%
8.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.5%
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.59
72.0%
Conceding rate
79.6%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.85
66.7%
Conceding rate
76.9%
50
History Matches
54
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.59
0.97
Conceded Std
1.30
36.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.3%
8.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
54
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.29
Goal Difference Std
1.92
5.40
Stability score
2.37
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
54
11
Lead Matches
16
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.75
10
Trailing Matches
12
30.0%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.46
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
81.40
Rest days
73.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
25
Long Rest History Matches
28
0.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.91
68.31
Portability Score
56.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-15.45
PPG-0.26
GF-0.41
GA-0.41
PPG-0.35
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate8.5%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate18.6%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.41
Goals Std-0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.39
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.41
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.68
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.64
Stability score3.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.90
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate28.4%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate21.7%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.44
Portability Score11.38
Rest days7.42
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Current Team ELO-15.45
Current Opponent ELO15.45
Current ELO Difference-30.89
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cartagena LU II

L
Atlético Pulpileño3–2Cartagena LU II31 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 39% · hit
L
Balsicas Atlético2–1Cartagena LU II25 Oct · away
Pick: Balsicas Atlético 34% · hit
L
Cartagena LU II1–2Algar4 Oct · home
Pick: Cartagena LU II 68% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Santomera

W
Olímpico Totana1–3Santomera1 Nov · away
Pick: Olímpico Totana 41% · missed
W
Santomera4–0San Javier24 Oct · home
Pick: Santomera 70% · hit
W
Atlético Pulpileño2–3Santomera4 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Pulpileño 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cartagena LU II and Santomera meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 07:24 UTC: Cartagena LU II win 34.0%, draw 23.8%, Santomera win 42.3%. The pick is Santomera win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.6%. Both teams to score: 50.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.