ScoreProb
Allsvenskan Sweden Round 28 2026

AIK Stockholm vs BK Hacken

AIK Stockholm Home · Elo 1,582
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
BK Hacken Away · Elo 1,591
Strawberry Arena, Solna Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: BK Hacken win
AIK Stockholm win
31.3%
Draw
31.4%
BK Hacken winPick
37.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.5%
No43.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%

How much we know

AIK Stockholm history70 matches
BK Hacken history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why BK Hacken are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,582 against 1,591. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.57 goals a game over 70 matches for AIK Stockholm, against 1.66 over 82 for BK Hacken.

  • Defences are close

    AIK Stockholm concede 1.29 a game, BK Hacken 1.41.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of AIK Stockholm matches, against 54% for BK Hacken. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
AIK Stockholm
BK Hacken
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1582.5
ELO
1591.0
70
ELO · Matches
82
1582.5
Current Team ELO
1591.0
1591.0
Current Opponent ELO
1582.5
-8.50
Current ELO Difference
8.50
0.49
Expected score
0.51
70
History Matches
82
0.06
Residual Mean
0.06
54.59
Overperformance
55.06
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.50
1.60
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
82
1.57
PPG
1.54
44.3%
Win rate
42.7%
24.3%
Draw rate
25.6%
31.4%
Loss rate
31.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.7%
55.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.7%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
35.4%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
38
1.69
PPG
1.50
48.6%
Win rate
42.1%
22.9%
Draw rate
23.7%
28.6%
Loss rate
34.2%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.8%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
35
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
1.66
75.7%
Scoring rate
76.8%
51.4%
BTTS rate
52.4%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.42
71.4%
Scoring rate
63.2%
45.7%
BTTS rate
34.2%
1.47
Goals for per game
1.78
76.5%
Scoring rate
88.9%
64.7%
BTTS rate
61.1%
70
History Matches
82
1.57
Goals Mean
1.66
1.40
Goals Std
1.51
75.7%
Scored 1+ rate
76.8%
47.1%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
22.0%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.42
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.41
67.1%
Conceding rate
69.5%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.16
62.9%
Conceding rate
60.5%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.44
82.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
82
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.16
Conceded Std
1.35
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.5%
18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
24.3%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
39.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
36.8%
32.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
82
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.90
Goal Difference Std
2.13
2.77
Stability score
2.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
82
22
Lead Matches
27
86.4%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.83
26
Trailing Matches
25
26.9%
Non-loss rate
32.0%
11.5%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.15
Rest days
74.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
13
1.60
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.15
40
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
24
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
18
1.65
PPG
1.72
47.1%
Win rate
44.4%
23.5%
Draw rate
38.9%
29.4%
Loss rate
16.7%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
17
Current Competition Matches
18
1.65
Current Competition PPG
1.72
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
7
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.50
2.25
Portability PPG Range
1.50
43.41
Portability Score
50.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-8.50
PPG0.03
GF-0.09
GA-0.13
PPG-0.08
PPG0.19
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-12
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.23
Stability score0.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.10
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate8.6%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate3.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.08
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.75
Portability Score-6.81
Rest days9.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-8
Short Rest Points Per Match0.45
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO-8.50
Current Opponent ELO8.50
Current ELO Difference-16.99
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

AIK Stockholm

L
Gais2–1AIK Stockholm2 Nov · away
Pick: Gais 48% · hit
D
AIK Stockholm2–2IF Elfsborg27 Oct · home
Pick: AIK Stockholm 45% · missed
W
Sirius1–2AIK Stockholm24 Oct · away
Pick: Sirius 56% · missed
D
AIK Stockholm2–2IFK Goteborg17 Oct · home
Pick: AIK Stockholm 49% · missed
W
AIK Stockholm3–2Hammarby FF30 Aug · home
Pick: Hammarby FF 47% · missed

BK Hacken

W
BK Hacken1–0IFK Goteborg1 Nov · home
Pick: BK Hacken 57% · hit
D
IF Brommapojkarna0–0BK Hacken28 Oct · away
Pick: BK Hacken 38% · missed
W
BK Hacken4–0Degerfors IF24 Oct · home
Pick: BK Hacken 60% · hit
W
Malmo FF0–1BK Hacken18 Oct · away
Pick: BK Hacken 38% · hit
L
BK Hacken1–3Vasteras SK FK29 Aug · home
Pick: BK Hacken 54% · missed

About this match

AIK Stockholm and BK Hacken meet in Allsvenskan on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Strawberry Arena, Solna. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: AIK Stockholm win 31.3%, draw 31.4%, BK Hacken win 37.3%. The pick is BK Hacken win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.3%. Both teams to score: 56.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.