ScoreProb
Division 2 Saudi Arabia Round 6 2026

Al Arabi SC vs Al Jubail

Al Arabi SC Home · Elo 1,326
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Jubail Away · Elo 1,332
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Jubail win
Al Arabi SC win
35.8%
Draw
24.2%
Al Jubail winPick
40.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%

How much we know

Al Arabi SC history50 matches
Al Jubail history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:20 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Jubail are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,326 against 1,332. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.86 goals a game over 50 matches for Al Arabi SC, against 0.90 over 51 for Al Jubail.

  • Al Jubail concede fewer

    Al Arabi SC concede 2.10 a game, Al Jubail 1.88.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Al Arabi SC matches, against 53% for Al Jubail. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Arabi SC
Al Jubail
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1325.8
ELO
1331.6
50
ELO · Matches
51
1325.8
Current Team ELO
1331.6
1331.6
Current Opponent ELO
1325.8
-5.90
Current ELO Difference
5.90
0.49
Expected score
0.51
50
History Matches
51
-0.17
Residual Mean
-0.16
37.96
Overperformance
38.43
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.00
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
2.60
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
0.30
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
2.50
Goals against per game
2.40
10.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.20
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
51
0.58
PPG
0.67
14.0%
Win rate
13.7%
16.0%
Draw rate
25.5%
70.0%
Loss rate
60.8%
74.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
58.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
38.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
25
0.65
PPG
0.28
19.2%
Win rate
4.0%
7.7%
Draw rate
16.0%
73.1%
Loss rate
80.0%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
36.0%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.30
26
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.86
Goals for per game
0.90
54.0%
Scoring rate
58.8%
48.0%
BTTS rate
54.9%
0.88
Goals for per game
0.76
53.8%
Scoring rate
48.0%
46.2%
BTTS rate
48.0%
50
History Matches
51
0.86
Goals Mean
0.90
1.06
Goals Std
0.89
54.0%
Scored 1+ rate
58.8%
18.0%
Scored 2+ rate
27.5%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
3.9%
0.88
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.10
Goals against per game
1.88
92.0%
Conceding rate
90.2%
2.15
Goals against per game
2.24
92.3%
Conceding rate
96.0%
50
History Matches
51
2.10
Conceded Mean
1.88
1.28
Conceded Std
1.23
60.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.9%
40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.5%
2.15
Venue Conceded Mean
2.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
8.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
46.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
7.7%
Clean-sheet rate
4.0%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
8.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
46.0%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
7.7%
Clean-sheet rate
4.0%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
8.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
51
0.74
Result entropy
0.84
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.39
25.53
Stability score
15.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
51
5
Lead Matches
7
40.0%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
0.62
25
Trailing Matches
19
20.0%
Non-loss rate
5.3%
8.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.20
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
1.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
178.8
Rest days
178.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
33
Normal Rest History Matches
35
0.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.60
16
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.08
Portability PPG Range
0.84
92.22
Portability Score
54.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-5.90
PPG-0.09
GF-0.04
GA0.22
PPG0.37
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.19
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate5.1%
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score9.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate14.7%
Trailing Win Rate8.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score37.82
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.04
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-5.90
Current Opponent ELO5.90
Current ELO Difference-11.79
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Arabi SC

W
Al Qous0–2Al Arabi SC3 Nov · away
Pick: Al Arabi SC 45% · hit
W
Jubbah0–2Al Arabi SC29 Oct · away
Pick: Jubbah 40% · missed
D
Al Arabi SC0–0Al Entesar24 Oct · home
Pick: Al Arabi SC 50% · missed
L
Al-Kawkab3–1Al Arabi SC18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Arabi SC 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Al Jubail

D
Al Jubail0–0Al Sharq3 Nov · home
Pick: Al Jubail 53% · missed
D
Al-Kawkab2–2Al Jubail29 Oct · away
Pick: Al Jubail 47% · missed
L
Al Najoom1–0Al Jubail24 Oct · away
Pick: Al Najoom 41% · hit
D
Al Jubail0–0Jubbah17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Jubail 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Arabi SC and Al Jubail meet in Division 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:20 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Al Arabi SC win 35.8%, draw 24.2%, Al Jubail win 40.0%. The pick is Al Jubail win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.3%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.