ScoreProb
National Soccer League Rwanda Round 8 2026

Al Hilal Omdurman vs Rayon Sports

Al Hilal Omdurman Home · Elo 1,667
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rayon Sports Away · Elo 1,606
Al Hilal Stadium, Omdurman Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Hilal Omdurman win
Al Hilal Omdurman winPick
58.3%
Draw
25.4%
Rayon Sports win
16.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.8%
Under 2.554.2%

How much we know

Al Hilal Omdurman history76 matches
Rayon Sports history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Al Hilal Omdurman are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Hilal Omdurman are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,667 against 1,606. On rating alone Al Hilal Omdurman would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Al Hilal Omdurman score far more

    1.91 goals a game over 76 matches for Al Hilal Omdurman, against 1.17 over 54 for Rayon Sports.

  • Defences are close

    Al Hilal Omdurman concede 0.74 a game, Rayon Sports 0.81.

  • Al Hilal Omdurman games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Al Hilal Omdurman matches, against 30% for Rayon Sports. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Hilal Omdurman
Rayon Sports
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1666.9
ELO
1605.9
76
ELO · Matches
54
1666.9
Current Team ELO
1605.9
1605.9
Current Opponent ELO
1666.9
61.05
Current ELO Difference
-61.05
0.59
Expected score
0.41
76
History Matches
54
0.10
Residual Mean
0.09
58.24
Overperformance
56.82
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.60
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.10
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
0.60
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.98
Overall performance9 signals
90
76
Matches
54
2.04
PPG
1.72
60.5%
Win rate
44.4%
22.4%
Draw rate
38.9%
17.1%
Loss rate
16.7%
76.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
51.3%
Over 2.5 rate
29.6%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.23
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
28
2.00
PPG
1.75
62.2%
Win rate
46.4%
13.5%
Draw rate
35.7%
24.3%
Loss rate
17.9%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
37
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.91
Goals for per game
1.17
86.8%
Scoring rate
75.9%
47.4%
BTTS rate
46.3%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.21
78.4%
Scoring rate
82.1%
37.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
76
History Matches
54
1.91
Goals Mean
1.17
1.47
Goals Std
0.83
86.8%
Scored 1+ rate
75.9%
53.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.0%
26.3%
Scored 3+ rate
3.7%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.74
Goals against per game
0.81
56.6%
Conceding rate
59.3%
0.65
Goals against per game
0.96
54.1%
Conceding rate
60.7%
76
History Matches
54
0.74
Conceded Mean
0.81
0.77
Conceded Std
0.86
14.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.7%
2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.7%
0.65
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
45.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
45.9%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
43.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
76
History Matches
54
0.86
Result entropy
0.93
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.23
14.35
Stability score
6.58
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
54
36
Lead Matches
18
86.1%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.81
11
Trailing Matches
9
36.4%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
89.15
Rest days
89.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
21
Short Rest History Matches
7
2.38
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.57
36
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
18
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
4
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.39
Portability PPG Range
0.99
78.54
Portability Score
54.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
76
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO61.05
PPG0.32
GF0.74
GA-0.08
PPG0.25
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches22
Goals Mean0.74
Goals Std0.64
Scored 1+ rate10.9%
Scored 2+ rate16.9%
Scored 3+ rate22.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.22
History Matches22
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches22
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.57
Stability score7.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.49
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches18
Lead Win Rate13.9%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.61
Portability Score23.84
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches14
Short Rest Points Per Match0.81
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO61.05
Current Opponent ELO-61.05
Current ELO Difference122.1
Expected score0.17
History Matches22
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Hilal Omdurman

W
Gasogi United0–2Al Hilal Omdurman31 Oct · away
Pick: Al Hilal Omdurman 52% · hit
L
Marines3–0Al Hilal Omdurman28 Oct · away
Pick: Al Hilal Omdurman 55% · missed
W
Al Hilal Omdurman2–0Sidama Bunna25 Oct · home
Pick: Al Hilal Omdurman 60% · hit
W
Sidama Bunna0–2Al Hilal Omdurman18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Hilal Omdurman 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rayon Sports

W
Marines1–2Rayon Sports1 Nov · away
Pick: Rayon Sports 43% · hit
D
Black Bulls Maputo2–2Rayon Sports24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 39% · hit
L
Rayon Sports0–2Black Bulls Maputo17 Oct · home
Pick: Rayon Sports 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Hilal Omdurman and Rayon Sports meet in National Soccer League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Al Hilal Stadium, Omdurman. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Al Hilal Omdurman win 58.3%, draw 25.4%, Rayon Sports win 16.3%. The pick is Al Hilal Omdurman win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.8%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.