ScoreProb
National Soccer League Rwanda Round 8 2026

Etincelles vs Kiyovu Sports

Etincelles Home · Elo 1,501
LIVE · 4'
0–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
Kiyovu Sports Away · Elo 1,535
Umuganda Stadium, Gisenyi Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Draw
Etincelles win
35.8%
DrawPick
38.7%
Kiyovu Sports win
25.5%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

Nothing has happened yet. Goals, cards and substitutions appear here as they happen.

Lineups

Published about an hour before kickoff

Lineups are not provided for this competition by our data source.

Live stats

Etincelles left, Kiyovu Sports right

Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Draw · 38.7%
Level: on track
Both teams to scorePick: No · 54.0%
Holding
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Under · 59.2%
Holding: no goals yet
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes46.0%
No54.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.8%
Under 2.559.2%

How much we know

Etincelles history49 matches
Kiyovu Sports history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

Share this match

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kiyovu Sports are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,501. On rating alone Kiyovu Sports would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.02 goals a game over 49 matches for Etincelles, against 1.02 over 45 for Kiyovu Sports.

  • Kiyovu Sports concede fewer

    Etincelles concede 1.14 a game, Kiyovu Sports 0.91.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Etincelles matches, against 38% for Kiyovu Sports. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 30 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Etincelles
Kiyovu Sports
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.5
ELO
1534.8
49
ELO · Matches
45
1500.5
Current Team ELO
1534.8
1534.8
Current Opponent ELO
1500.5
-34.25
Current ELO Difference
34.25
0.45
Expected score
0.55
49
History Matches
45
0.00
Residual Mean
0.04
50.25
Overperformance
52.49
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
45
1.16
PPG
1.47
24.5%
Win rate
37.8%
42.9%
Draw rate
33.3%
32.7%
Loss rate
28.9%
65.3%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
38.8%
Over 2.5 rate
37.8%
18.4%
Over 3.5 rate
15.6%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
23
1.24
PPG
1.57
28.0%
Win rate
43.5%
40.0%
Draw rate
26.1%
32.0%
Loss rate
30.4%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
47.8%
28.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.4%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
8.7%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
25
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
1.02
65.3%
Scoring rate
62.2%
51.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
0.80
Goals for per game
0.91
56.0%
Scoring rate
60.9%
40.0%
BTTS rate
26.1%
49
History Matches
45
1.02
Goals Mean
1.02
1.00
Goals Std
1.11
65.3%
Scored 1+ rate
62.2%
24.5%
Scored 2+ rate
22.2%
10.2%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.14
Goals against per game
0.91
69.4%
Conceding rate
55.6%
0.80
Goals against per game
0.87
60.0%
Conceding rate
47.8%
49
History Matches
45
1.14
Conceded Mean
0.91
1.03
Conceded Std
1.05
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
8.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.4%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
0.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
52.2%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
34.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
52.2%
44.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.1%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
44.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
45
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.35
Goal Difference Std
1.54
2.32
Stability score
0.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
45
11
Lead Matches
6
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
1.00
15
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
158.1
Rest days
158.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.28
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.12
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.25
Portability PPG Range
0.15
80.31
Portability Score
86.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-34.25
PPG-0.30
GF0.00
GA0.23
PPG-0.33
PPG0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate3.1%
Scored 2+ rate2.3%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.23
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score1.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.03
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate2.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.09
Portability Score-6.49
Rest days-0.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO-34.25
Current Opponent ELO34.25
Current ELO Difference-68.51
Expected score-0.10
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Etincelles

L
Etincelles0–2APR31 Oct · home
Pick: APR 41% · hit
L
Etincelles0–4Marines17 Oct · home
Pick: Etincelles 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Kiyovu Sports

W
Kiyovu Sports2–0AS Kigali30 Oct · home
Pick: Kiyovu Sports 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Etincelles and Kiyovu Sports meet in National Soccer League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Umuganda Stadium, Gisenyi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Etincelles win 35.8%, draw 38.7%, Kiyovu Sports win 25.5%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 40.8%. Both teams to score: 46.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.