ScoreProb
AFC Champions League Two World Round 4 2026

Al Kuwait vs Nasaf

Al Kuwait Home · Elo 1,696
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nasaf Away · Elo 1,526
Al Kuwait Sports Club Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Kuwait win
Al Kuwait winPick
46.2%
Draw
23.3%
Nasaf win
30.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%

How much we know

Al Kuwait history58 matches
Nasaf history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al Kuwait are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Kuwait are rated 170 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,696 against 1,526. On rating alone Al Kuwait would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Al Kuwait score far more

    2.57 goals a game over 58 matches for Al Kuwait, against 1.36 over 67 for Nasaf.

  • Al Kuwait concede fewer

    Al Kuwait concede 0.79 a game, Nasaf 1.16.

  • Al Kuwait games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Al Kuwait matches, against 45% for Nasaf. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Kuwait
Nasaf
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1696.2
ELO
1525.9
58
ELO · Matches
67
1696.2
Current Team ELO
1525.9
1525.9
Current Opponent ELO
1696.2
170.4
Current ELO Difference
-170.4
0.73
Expected score
0.27
58
History Matches
67
0.19
Residual Mean
0.01
64.29
Overperformance
50.82
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
67
2.36
PPG
1.49
69.0%
Win rate
38.8%
29.3%
Draw rate
32.8%
1.7%
Loss rate
28.4%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
67.2%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
28.4%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
36
2.59
PPG
1.33
79.5%
Win rate
33.3%
20.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
39
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.57
Goals for per game
1.36
89.7%
Scoring rate
80.6%
51.7%
BTTS rate
56.7%
2.79
Goals for per game
1.39
94.9%
Scoring rate
83.3%
43.6%
BTTS rate
72.2%
58
History Matches
67
2.57
Goals Mean
1.36
1.71
Goals Std
1.05
89.7%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
69.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.8%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.4%
2.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.79
Goals against per game
1.16
53.4%
Conceding rate
67.2%
0.62
Goals against per game
1.53
43.6%
Conceding rate
86.1%
58
History Matches
67
0.79
Conceded Mean
1.16
0.91
Conceded Std
1.30
19.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.4%
6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.9%
0.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
46.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
56.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
5.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
46.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
56.4%
Clean-sheet rate
13.9%
5.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
46.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
67
0.62
Result entropy
0.99
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.64
37.56
Stability score
0.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
66
32
Lead Matches
19
93.8%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.75
6
Trailing Matches
18
100.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
50.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
1.23
First Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
71.01
Rest days
75.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
42
2.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
15
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
10
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.47
66.62
Portability Score
48.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO170.4
PPG0.87
GF1.21
GA-0.37
PPG1.26
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate42.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-9
Goals Mean1.21
Goals Std0.67
Scored 1+ rate9.1%
Scored 2+ rate30.2%
Scored 3+ rate39.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.57
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.37
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score36.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.63
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate25.3%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate66.7%
Trailing Win Rate50.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.28
Portability PPG Range-0.72
Portability Score17.95
Rest days-4.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.33
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.18
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO170.4
Current Opponent ELO-170.4
Current ELO Difference340.7
Expected score0.45
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance13.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Kuwait

W
Nasaf0–1Al Kuwait28 Oct · away
Pick: Nasaf 39% · missed
W
Al Tadhamon2–6Al Kuwait23 Oct · away
Pick: Al Kuwait 56% · hit
W
Al Kuwait7–0Al Sulaibikhat19 Oct · home
Pick: Al Kuwait 68% · hit
W
Al Qadsia0–1Al Kuwait31 Aug · away
Pick: Al Qadsia 51% · missed
D
Al Kuwait3–3Al Arabi25 Aug · home
Pick: Al Kuwait 44% · missed

Nasaf

D
Surkhon1–1Nasaf31 Oct · away
Pick: Nasaf 45% · missed
L
Nasaf0–1Al Kuwait28 Oct · home
Pick: Nasaf 39% · missed
W
Nasaf2–1Sogdiana24 Oct · home
Pick: Nasaf 51% · hit
D
Lokomotiv0–0Nasaf17 Oct · away
Pick: Lokomotiv 39% · missed
L
Nasaf1–2Al Wahda FC14 Oct · home
Pick: Nasaf 47% · missed

About this match

Al Kuwait and Nasaf meet in AFC Champions League Two on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Al Kuwait Sports Club Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Al Kuwait win 46.2%, draw 23.3%, Nasaf win 30.5%. The pick is Al Kuwait win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.8%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.