ScoreProb
Division 1 Saudi Arabia Round 11 2026

Al Najma vs Al Ula

Al Najma Home · Elo 1,422
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Ula Away · Elo 1,611
King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Buraidah Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Ula win
Al Najma win
27.0%
Draw
18.4%
Al Ula winPick
54.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%

How much we know

Al Najma history55 matches
Al Ula history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Al Ula are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Ula are rated 189 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,611 against 1,422. On rating alone Al Ula would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Al Ula score far more

    1.16 goals a game over 55 matches for Al Najma, against 2.15 over 39 for Al Ula.

  • Al Ula concede fewer

    Al Najma concede 1.75 a game, Al Ula 0.92.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Al Najma matches, against 67% for Al Ula. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Najma
Al Ula
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1421.8
ELO
1611.2
55
ELO · Matches
39
1421.8
Current Team ELO
1611.2
1611.2
Current Opponent ELO
1421.8
-189.4
Current ELO Difference
189.4
0.25
Expected score
0.75
55
History Matches
39
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.14
45.27
Overperformance
59.37
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.10
1.10
Goals for per game
1.90
1.90
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
39
1.07
PPG
2.10
29.1%
Win rate
61.5%
20.0%
Draw rate
25.6%
50.9%
Loss rate
12.8%
78.2%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
61.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
19
1.28
PPG
1.95
34.5%
Win rate
57.9%
24.1%
Draw rate
21.1%
41.4%
Loss rate
21.1%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.1%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
29
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.16
Goals for per game
2.15
72.7%
Scoring rate
92.3%
60.0%
BTTS rate
64.1%
1.38
Goals for per game
1.95
86.2%
Scoring rate
89.5%
69.0%
BTTS rate
57.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
39
1.16
Goals Mean
2.15
0.91
Goals Std
1.35
72.7%
Scored 1+ rate
92.3%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
61.5%
7.3%
Scored 3+ rate
38.5%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
0.92
80.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.66
Goals against per game
1.00
82.8%
Conceding rate
63.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
39
1.75
Conceded Mean
0.92
1.40
Conceded Std
0.83
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.5%
27.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.1%
1.66
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
17.2%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
39
0.93
Result entropy
0.83
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.69
6.72
Stability score
17.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
38
13
Lead Matches
24
69.2%
Lead Win Rate
79.2%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.85
18
Trailing Matches
2
16.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
1.24
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.95
Rest days
75.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
37
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.19
14
Long Rest History Matches
11
0.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.82
Portability PPG Std
—
1.65
Portability PPG Range
—
37.78
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-189.4
PPG-1.03
GF-0.99
GA0.82
PPG0.00
PPG-0.67
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate19.6%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate3.3%
History Matches16
Goals Mean-0.99
Goals Std-0.44
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.31
Venue Goals Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches16
Conceded Mean0.82
Conceded Std0.58
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate22.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.55
History Matches16
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score-10.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.50
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days1.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.02
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.03
Current Team ELO-189.4
Current Opponent ELO189.4
Current ELO Difference-378.9
Expected score-0.50
History Matches16
Residual Mean-0.21
Overperformance-14.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Najma

W
Al Jeel0–1Al Najma2 Nov · away
Pick: Al Najma 46% · hit
W
Al Najma2–0Al Zulfi28 Oct · home
Pick: Al Zulfi 39% · missed
W
Hajer2–4Al Najma20 Oct · away
Pick: Al Najma 37% · hit
W
Al Najma3–0Damac12 Oct · home
Pick: Al Najma 53% · hit
D
Al Najma1–1Al Jabalain1 Sep · home
Pick: Al Najma 52% · missed

Al Ula

W
Hajer1–3Al Ula1 Nov · away
Pick: Al Ula 49% · hit
W
Al Ula3–1Al Orubah26 Oct · home
Pick: Al Ula 57% · hit
D
Al Zulfi1–1Al Ula19 Oct · away
Pick: Al Zulfi 36% · missed
W
Al Okhdood1–5Al Ula8 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ula 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Najma and Al Ula meet in Division 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at King Abdullah Sports City Stadium, Buraidah. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Al Najma win 27.0%, draw 18.4%, Al Ula win 54.6%. The pick is Al Ula win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.8%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.