ScoreProb
Division 1 Saudi Arabia Round 11 2026

Al Taee vs Al-Raed

Al Taee Home · Elo 1,457
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al-Raed Away · Elo 1,488
Prince Abdul Aziz bin Masaad Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al-Raed win
Al Taee win
29.2%
Draw
22.1%
Al-Raed winPick
48.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.0%
No43.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%

How much we know

Al Taee history54 matches
Al-Raed history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:05 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Al-Raed are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al-Raed are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,488 against 1,457. On rating alone Al-Raed would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Al-Raed score more

    1.33 goals a game over 54 matches for Al Taee, against 1.56 over 55 for Al-Raed.

  • Defences are close

    Al Taee concede 1.50 a game, Al-Raed 1.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Al Taee matches, against 56% for Al-Raed. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Taee
Al-Raed
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1457.0
ELO
1488.0
54
ELO · Matches
55
1457.0
Current Team ELO
1488.0
1488.0
Current Opponent ELO
1457.0
-30.95
Current ELO Difference
30.95
0.46
Expected score
0.54
54
History Matches
55
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.27
Overperformance
49.43
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.70
2.00
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
55
1.31
PPG
1.13
37.0%
Win rate
30.9%
20.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
42.6%
Loss rate
49.1%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.2%
59.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
35.2%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
1.18
PPG
1.11
32.1%
Win rate
29.6%
21.4%
Draw rate
22.2%
46.4%
Loss rate
48.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.56
70.4%
Scoring rate
76.4%
51.9%
BTTS rate
61.8%
1.21
Goals for per game
1.48
64.3%
Scoring rate
74.1%
46.4%
BTTS rate
51.9%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
55
1.33
Goals Mean
1.56
1.29
Goals Std
1.41
70.4%
Scored 1+ rate
76.4%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
23.6%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.56
72.2%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.52
71.4%
Conceding rate
74.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
54
History Matches
55
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.56
1.40
Conceded Std
1.20
40.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.3%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.6%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.9%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.9%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
55
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
2.17
Goal Difference Std
1.65
3.92
Stability score
5.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
55
14
Lead Matches
19
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
57.9%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.68
20
Trailing Matches
21
25.0%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.95
Rest days
77.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
40
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
13
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.29
Portability PPG Range
1.12
77.27
Portability Score
47.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-30.95
PPG0.19
GF-0.23
GA-0.06
PPG-3.00
PPG0.07
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Failed-to-score rate6.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.6%
Failed-to-score rate9.8%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.64
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.06
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate9.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.77
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.52
Stability score-1.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.40
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate35.0%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate6.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-0.82
Portability Score30.05
Rest days0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.76
Current Team ELO-30.95
Current Opponent ELO30.95
Current ELO Difference-61.89
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Taee

D
Al Saqer1–1Al Taee1 Nov · away
Pick: Al Saqer 56% · missed
W
Al Taee2–0Jeddah Club27 Oct · home
Pick: Jeddah Club 39% · missed
L
Damac4–1Al Taee19 Oct · away
Pick: Damac 52% · hit
L
Al Wehda Club6–1Al Taee12 Oct · away
Pick: Al Wehda Club 54% · hit
W
Al Taee2–1Al Jandal31 Aug · home
Pick: Al Taee 44% · hit

Al-Raed

L
Al-Raed0–1Al Wehda Club3 Nov · home
Pick: Al-Raed 54% · missed
L
Al Jabalain1–0Al-Raed28 Oct · away
Pick: Al-Raed 40% · missed
L
Al-Raed0–2Al Saqer19 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Raed 56% · missed
W
Al-Raed1–0Jeddah Club14 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Raed 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Taee and Al-Raed meet in Division 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:05 UTC. The match is played at Prince Abdul Aziz bin Masaad Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Al Taee win 29.2%, draw 22.1%, Al-Raed win 48.7%. The pick is Al-Raed win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.8%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.