ScoreProb
Iraqi League Iraq Round 13 2026

Al Quwa Al Jawiya vs Al Karkh

Al Quwa Al Jawiya Home · Elo 1,655
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al Karkh Away · Elo 1,524
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Quwa Al Jawiya win
Al Quwa Al Jawiya winPick
62.0%
Draw
22.5%
Al Karkh win
15.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.1%
Under 2.551.9%

How much we know

Al Quwa Al Jawiya history62 matches
Al Karkh history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Al Quwa Al Jawiya are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya are rated 131 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,655 against 1,524. On rating alone Al Quwa Al Jawiya would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya score more

    1.60 goals a game over 62 matches for Al Quwa Al Jawiya, against 1.25 over 61 for Al Karkh.

  • Al Quwa Al Jawiya concede fewer

    Al Quwa Al Jawiya concede 0.94 a game, Al Karkh 1.18.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Al Quwa Al Jawiya matches, against 39% for Al Karkh. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Quwa Al Jawiya
Al Karkh
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1655.2
ELO
1523.9
62
ELO · Matches
61
1655.2
Current Team ELO
1523.9
1523.9
Current Opponent ELO
1655.2
131.3
Current ELO Difference
-131.3
0.68
Expected score
0.32
62
History Matches
61
0.13
Residual Mean
0.02
59.61
Overperformance
51.61
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.66
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
61
1.98
PPG
1.44
58.1%
Win rate
37.7%
24.2%
Draw rate
31.1%
17.7%
Loss rate
31.1%
79.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
46.8%
Over 2.5 rate
39.3%
17.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
30
2.12
PPG
1.47
63.6%
Win rate
40.0%
21.2%
Draw rate
26.7%
15.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
51.5%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
18.2%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
33
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.25
85.5%
Scoring rate
70.5%
51.6%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.73
Goals for per game
1.23
87.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
57.6%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
62
History Matches
61
1.60
Goals Mean
1.25
1.10
Goals Std
1.11
85.5%
Scored 1+ rate
70.5%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.1%
16.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
1.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.18
59.7%
Conceding rate
80.3%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.17
63.6%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
61
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.18
0.97
Conceded Std
0.90
25.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.9%
6.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.6%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.3%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
61
0.88
Result entropy
1.00
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.47
12.09
Stability score
0.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
61
27
Lead Matches
15
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.82
18
Trailing Matches
20
61.1%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
73.76
Rest days
73.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
43
Normal Rest History Matches
42
2.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.56
Portability PPG Std
0.12
1.34
Portability PPG Range
0.25
47.37
Portability Score
80.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO131.3
PPG0.54
GF0.35
GA-0.24
PPG1.00
PPG0.65
PPG1.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate15.0%
Scored 2+ rate13.9%
Scored 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.75
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate20.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.52
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score11.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.30
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate15.6%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate31.1%
Trailing Win Rate17.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.43
Portability PPG Range1.10
Portability Score-32.91
Rest days-0.14
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.67
Current Team ELO131.3
Current Opponent ELO-131.3
Current ELO Difference262.7
Expected score0.36
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

L
Al-Wasl FC4–3Al Quwa Al Jawiya2 Nov · away
Pick: Al-Wasl FC 39% · hit
W
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1–0Pakhtakor26 Oct · home
Pick: Pakhtakor 38% · missed
D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya0–0Al-Karma17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 40% · missed
L
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1–4Al Ain12 Oct · home
Pick: Al Ain 40% · hit
D
Al Quwa Al Jawiya1–1Naft Maysan29 Aug · home
Pick: Al Quwa Al Jawiya 47% · missed

Al Karkh

L
Al Karkh1–2Gharraf31 Oct · home
Pick: Al Karkh 42% · missed
D
Al Karkh1–1Mosul23 Oct · home
Pick: Al Karkh 41% · missed
D
Al Shorta1–1Al Karkh18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Shorta 58% · missed
L
Al Karkh0–1Erbil25 Aug · home
Pick: Erbil 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Quwa Al Jawiya and Al Karkh meet in Iraqi League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Al Quwa Al Jawiya win 62.0%, draw 22.5%, Al Karkh win 15.5%. The pick is Al Quwa Al Jawiya win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.1%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.