ScoreProb
Iraqi League Iraq Round 13 2026

Al Zawra'a vs Al-Jolan SC

Al Zawra'a Home · Elo 1,585
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Al-Jolan SC Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Al Zawra'a win
Al Zawra'a winPick
69.3%
Draw
20.1%
Al-Jolan SC win
10.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes36.7%
No63.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.1%
Under 2.555.9%

How much we know

Al Zawra'a history71 matches
Al-Jolan SC history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Al Zawra'a are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Al Zawra'a are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,585 against 1,493. On rating alone Al Zawra'a would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Al Zawra'a score far more

    1.42 goals a game over 71 matches for Al Zawra'a, against 0.00 over 2 for Al-Jolan SC.

  • Al-Jolan SC concede fewer

    Al Zawra'a concede 0.90 a game, Al-Jolan SC 0.50.

  • Al Zawra'a games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Al Zawra'a matches, against 0% for Al-Jolan SC. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Zawra'a
Al-Jolan SC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1584.6
ELO
1492.7
71
ELO · Matches
2
1584.6
Current Team ELO
1492.7
1492.7
Current Opponent ELO
1584.6
91.88
Current ELO Difference
-91.88
0.63
Expected score
0.37
71
History Matches
2
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.18
54.52
Overperformance
48.32
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
0.50
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.60
Goals against per game
0.50
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
2
1.30
PPG
0.50
1.20
Goals for per game
0.00
0.80
Goals against per game
0.50
30.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.00
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.50
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.50
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
2
1.80
PPG
0.50
50.7%
Win rate
0.0%
28.2%
Draw rate
50.0%
21.1%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
43.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
16.9%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
1
2.00
PPG
1.00
58.3%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
36
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.42
Goals for per game
0.00
81.7%
Scoring rate
0.0%
49.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.58
Goals for per game
0.00
80.6%
Scoring rate
0.0%
41.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.67
Goals for per game
0.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
0.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
71
History Matches
2
1.42
Goals Mean
0.00
1.02
Goals Std
0.00
81.7%
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
43.7%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
12.7%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.90
Goals against per game
0.50
56.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
0.75
Goals against per game
0.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
0.33
Goals against per game
0.50
33.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
71
History Matches
2
0.90
Conceded Mean
0.50
1.00
Conceded Std
0.50
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
4.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
43.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
18.3%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
43.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
2
0.94
Result entropy
0.63
1.43
Goal Difference Std
0.50
6.27
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
2
23
Lead Matches
0
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.86
Lead Points Retention
—
9
Trailing Matches
1
11.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
73.90
Rest days
73.99
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
59
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
11
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
1.67
PPG
0.50
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
1.67
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
4
Competition Season Count
1
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.20
Portability PPG Std
—
0.55
Portability PPG Range
—
71.67
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO91.88
PPG1.30
GF1.42
GA0.40
PPG1.17
PPG1.00
PPG0.50
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches69
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.82
History Matches35
Clean-sheet rate-0.50
Failed-to-score rate-0.81
History Matches69
Goals Mean1.42
Goals Std1.02
Scored 1+ rate81.7%
Scored 2+ rate43.7%
Scored 3+ rate12.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std1.17
History Matches69
Conceded Mean0.40
Conceded Std0.50
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate26.8%
Conceded 3+ rate4.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches69
Result entropy0.31
Goal Difference Std0.93
Stability score-30.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.00
Eligible Matches69
Lead Matches23
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches69
First Half Goals For Mean0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.55
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.83
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Rest days-0.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches59
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match1.45
Current Team ELO91.88
Current Opponent ELO-91.88
Current ELO Difference183.8
Expected score0.26
History Matches69
Residual Mean0.24
Overperformance6.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Al Zawra'a

D
Al Zawra'a1–1Al Riffa3 Nov · home
Pick: Al Zawra'a 54% · missed
L
Al Zawra'a0–1Al Nasr28 Oct · home
Pick: Al Zawra'a 58% · missed
L
Al Zawra'a0–2Al Shorta23 Oct · home
Pick: Al Zawra'a 44% · missed
L
Ghaz Al Shamal1–0Al Zawra'a18 Oct · away
Pick: Al Zawra'a 50% · missed
W
Al Zawra'a4–0Zakho29 Aug · home
Pick: Al Zawra'a 41% · hit

Al-Jolan SC

W
Al-Jolan SC2–1Al Kahrabaa23 Oct · home
Pick: Al-Jolan SC 43% · hit
W
Al-Jolan SC2–0Duhok17 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 43% · missed
D
Diyala3–3Al-Jolan SC29 Aug · away
Pick: Diyala 53% · missed
L
Al-Jolan SC0–1Al Shorta25 Aug · home
Pick: Al Shorta 38% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Al Zawra'a and Al-Jolan SC meet in Iraqi League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Al Zawra'a win 69.3%, draw 20.1%, Al-Jolan SC win 10.6%. The pick is Al Zawra'a win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.1%. Both teams to score: 36.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.