Al Wahda vs Al Ittihad
Match result probability Model pick: Al Wahda win
Al Wahda winPick
40.7%
Draw
28.7%
Al Ittihad win
30.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.8%
No48.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.5%
Under 2.547.5%
How much we know
Al Wahda history44 matches
Al Ittihad history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Al Wahda
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 2 d 5 h ahead4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.7%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.
Why Al Wahda are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al Ittihad are rated 61 Elo points higher
Elo 1,663 against 1,603. On rating alone Al Ittihad would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.
-
Al Ittihad score more
1.68 goals a game over 44 matches for Al Wahda, against 2.50 over 40 for Al Ittihad.
-
Al Ittihad concede fewer
Al Wahda concede 0.95 a game, Al Ittihad 0.80.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
50% of Al Wahda matches, against 58% for Al Ittihad. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 12 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Ittihad@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1602.5
ELO
1663.5
44
ELO · Matches
40
1602.5
Current Team ELO
1663.5
1663.5
Current Opponent ELO
1602.5
-60.93
Current ELO Difference
60.93
0.41
Expected score
0.59
44
History Matches
40
0.11
Residual Mean
0.21
57.59
Overperformance
64.01
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
0.40
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
2.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.80
0.50
Goals against per game
0.40
70.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.80
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals 90
44
Matches
40
2.00
PPG
2.38
61.4%
Win rate
72.5%
15.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
22.7%
Loss rate
7.5%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.5%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
18
1.76
PPG
2.22
52.4%
Win rate
61.1%
19.0%
Draw rate
38.9%
28.6%
Loss rate
0.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
52.4%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
21
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.68
Goals for per game
2.50
86.4%
Scoring rate
92.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
57.5%
1.71
Goals for per game
2.44
81.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
52.4%
BTTS rate
72.2%
44
History Matches
40
1.68
Goals Mean
2.50
1.26
Goals Std
1.61
86.4%
Scored 1+ rate
92.5%
47.7%
Scored 2+ rate
67.5%
22.7%
Scored 3+ rate
42.5%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
2.44
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.95
Goals against per game
0.80
56.8%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.89
66.7%
Conceding rate
72.2%
44
History Matches
40
0.95
Conceded Mean
0.80
0.98
Conceded Std
0.75
31.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.0%
6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.5%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
0.89
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
43.2%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
44
History Matches
40
0.85
Result entropy
0.68
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.63
15.45
Stability score
31.80
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
43
Eligible Matches
40
15
Lead Matches
16
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.92
7
Trailing Matches
4
28.6%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.65
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
125.9
Rest days
86.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
21
1.93
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.29
8
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.67
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.07
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.14
Portability PPG Range
0.32
87.44
Portability Score
75.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
44
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-60.93
PPG-0.38
GF-0.82
GA0.15
PPG-0.46
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate6.1%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.6%
Failed-to-score rate19.0%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.82
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.81
History Matches4
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate16.8%
Conceded 3+ rate4.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches4
Result entropy0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-16.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.43
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.36
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score11.81
Rest days39.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.29
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Current Team ELO-60.93
Current Opponent ELO60.93
Current ELO Difference-121.9
Expected score-0.17
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-6.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Al Wahda
D
Al Wahda1–1Jaish23 Oct · home
Pick: Al Wahda 55% · missed W
Foutoua0–1Al Wahda19 Oct · away
Pick: Al Wahda 54% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Al Ittihad
D
Al Ittihad0–0Qamishli2 Nov · home
Pick: Al Ittihad 73% · missed W
Al Ittihad2–1Paro23 Oct · home
Pick: Al Ittihad 40% · hit W
Al Ittihad5–1Ahal20 Oct · home
Pick: Al Ittihad 44% · hit L
Al Ansar2–0Al Ittihad17 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ansar 56% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Al Wahda and Al Ittihad meet in Premier League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 4 Nov, 06:57 UTC: Al Wahda win 40.7%, draw 28.7%, Al Ittihad win 30.5%. The pick is Al Wahda win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.5%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.