ScoreProb
Süper Lig Türkiye Round 11 2026

Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor

Alanyaspor Home · Elo 1,517
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Trabzonspor Away · Elo 1,616
Alanya Oba Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Alanyaspor win
Alanyaspor winPick
36.0%
Draw
29.4%
Trabzonspor win
34.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.9%
Under 2.548.1%

How much we know

Alanyaspor history62 matches
Trabzonspor history73 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Alanyaspor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Trabzonspor are rated 99 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,616 against 1,517. On rating alone Trabzonspor would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Trabzonspor score more

    1.35 goals a game over 62 matches for Alanyaspor, against 1.68 over 73 for Trabzonspor.

  • Defences are close

    Alanyaspor concede 1.19 a game, Trabzonspor 1.23.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Alanyaspor matches, against 55% for Trabzonspor. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alanyaspor
Trabzonspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1517.2
ELO
1616.0
62
ELO · Matches
73
1517.2
Current Team ELO
1616.0
1616.0
Current Opponent ELO
1517.2
-98.77
Current ELO Difference
98.77
0.36
Expected score
0.64
62
History Matches
73
0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
50.80
Overperformance
56.59
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
73
1.31
PPG
1.78
32.3%
Win rate
50.7%
33.9%
Draw rate
26.0%
33.9%
Loss rate
23.3%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.1%
48.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
27.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.4%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
34
1.47
PPG
1.76
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
26.7%
Draw rate
26.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
23.5%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
43.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
30
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.35
Goals for per game
1.68
79.0%
Scoring rate
83.6%
58.1%
BTTS rate
60.3%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.74
76.7%
Scoring rate
85.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
67.6%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
73
1.35
Goals Mean
1.68
1.15
Goals Std
1.28
79.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.6%
35.5%
Scored 2+ rate
49.3%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.9%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.74
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
1.23
69.4%
Conceding rate
71.2%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.26
60.0%
Conceding rate
73.5%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
73
1.19
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.03
Conceded Std
1.12
37.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.5%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.4%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
21.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
21.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.7%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
73
1.00
Result entropy
0.94
1.55
Goal Difference Std
1.57
0.02
Stability score
5.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
73
26
Lead Matches
23
53.8%
Lead Win Rate
78.3%
0.63
Lead Points Retention
0.83
14
Trailing Matches
19
28.6%
Non-loss rate
47.4%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.26
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
6
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.55
0.77
Portability PPG Range
1.63
60.17
Portability Score
47.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
73
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-98.77
PPG-0.47
GF-0.33
GA-0.04
PPG0.00
PPG-0.30
PPG0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Failed-to-score rate8.6%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std-0.13
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.06
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate1.9%
Conceded 2+ rate5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.09
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-5.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.20
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate1.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.86
Portability Score12.42
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Current Team ELO-98.77
Current Opponent ELO98.77
Current ELO Difference-197.5
Expected score-0.28
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-5.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alanyaspor

L
Gençlerbirliği S.K.5–0Alanyaspor2 Nov · away
Pick: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 43% · hit
W
Alanyaspor4–112 Bingölspor27 Oct · home
Pick: Alanyaspor 55% · hit
L
Alanyaspor1–2Kocaelispor23 Oct · home
Pick: Alanyaspor 48% · missed
L
Fenerbahçe3–0Alanyaspor17 Oct · away
Pick: Fenerbahçe 49% · hit
L
Eyüpspor2–1Alanyaspor30 Aug · away
Pick: Alanyaspor 46% · missed

Trabzonspor

W
Trabzonspor2–0Gaziantep FK1 Nov · home
Pick: Trabzonspor 50% · hit
W
Rizespor3–4Trabzonspor26 Oct · away
Pick: Trabzonspor 46% · hit
W
Trabzonspor2–0Heart Of Midlothian22 Oct · home
Pick: Trabzonspor 37% · hit
W
Trabzonspor2–0Beşiktaş19 Oct · home
Pick: Trabzonspor 39% · hit
W
KuPS2–4Trabzonspor15 Oct · away
Pick: KuPS 49% · missed

About this match

Alanyaspor and Trabzonspor meet in Süper Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Alanya Oba Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Alanyaspor win 36.0%, draw 29.4%, Trabzonspor win 34.6%. The pick is Alanyaspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.9%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.