ScoreProb
Süper Lig Türkiye Round 11 2026

Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe

Çorum FK Home · Elo 1,590
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fenerbahçe Away · Elo 1,713
Corum Stadyumu Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Fenerbahçe win
Çorum FK win
27.0%
Draw
21.5%
Fenerbahçe winPick
51.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.4%
No43.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%

How much we know

Çorum FK history66 matches
Fenerbahçe history95 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Fenerbahçe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Fenerbahçe are rated 123 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,713 against 1,590. On rating alone Fenerbahçe would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Fenerbahçe score more

    1.52 goals a game over 66 matches for Çorum FK, against 2.13 over 95 for Fenerbahçe.

  • Fenerbahçe concede fewer

    Çorum FK concede 1.20 a game, Fenerbahçe 1.03.

  • Fenerbahçe games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Çorum FK matches, against 63% for Fenerbahçe. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Çorum FK
Fenerbahçe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1590.0
ELO
1712.9
66
ELO · Matches
95
1590.0
Current Team ELO
1712.9
1712.9
Current Opponent ELO
1590.0
-122.9
Current ELO Difference
122.9
0.33
Expected score
0.67
66
History Matches
95
0.07
Residual Mean
0.11
55.16
Overperformance
59.09
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.30
1.60
Goals for per game
2.20
0.70
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
66
Matches
95
1.65
PPG
2.07
48.5%
Win rate
61.1%
19.7%
Draw rate
24.2%
31.8%
Loss rate
14.7%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.2%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
45.3%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
47
2.12
PPG
1.98
63.6%
Win rate
57.4%
21.2%
Draw rate
25.5%
15.2%
Loss rate
17.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.0%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
61.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.7%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
33
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.52
Goals for per game
2.13
74.2%
Scoring rate
86.3%
51.5%
BTTS rate
56.8%
1.82
Goals for per game
2.06
81.8%
Scoring rate
83.0%
51.5%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
95
1.52
Goals Mean
2.13
1.20
Goals Std
1.39
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
86.3%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
63.2%
21.2%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
2.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.20
Goals against per game
1.03
74.2%
Conceding rate
63.2%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.02
63.6%
Conceding rate
59.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
66
History Matches
95
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.10
Conceded Std
0.99
25.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.5%
13.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.4%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.02
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.7%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.4%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
66
History Matches
95
0.94
Result entropy
0.84
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.70
5.76
Stability score
15.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
66
Eligible Matches
95
22
Lead Matches
41
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
95.1%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.97
19
Trailing Matches
24
31.6%
Non-loss rate
58.3%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
37.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
66
Halftime Coverage Matches
95
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.88
Rest days
77.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
13
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.31
45
Normal Rest History Matches
65
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.98
19
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
5
Competition Season Count
12
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
10
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.68
Portability PPG Range
2.00
59.43
Portability Score
48.92
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
66
Clean History Matches
95
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-122.9
PPG-0.42
GF-0.61
GA0.17
PPG-1.00
PPG0.14
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-29
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate12.1%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate1.2%
History Matches-29
Goals Mean-0.61
Goals Std-0.20
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.27
History Matches-29
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.14
History Matches-29
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score-9.88
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.23
Eligible Matches-29
Lead Matches-19
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.22
Halftime Coverage Matches-29
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-7
Eligible Competition Season Count-8
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-1.32
Portability Score10.51
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-12
Short Rest Points Per Match0.69
Normal Rest History Matches-20
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Current Team ELO-122.9
Current Opponent ELO122.9
Current ELO Difference-245.7
Expected score-0.34
History Matches-29
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Çorum FK

W
Erzurumspor FK1–3Çorum FK31 Oct · away
Pick: Erzurumspor FK 39% · missed
L
Göztepe2–0Çorum FK25 Oct · away
Pick: Göztepe 45% · hit
W
Çorum FK2–1Rizespor16 Oct · home
Pick: Çorum FK 42% · hit
L
Beşiktaş6–2Çorum FK31 Aug · away
Pick: Beşiktaş 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fenerbahçe

L
Fenerbahçe1–2Göztepe31 Oct · home
Pick: Fenerbahçe 59% · missed
L
Galatasaray2–1Fenerbahçe26 Oct · away
Pick: Galatasaray 42% · hit
D
Fenerbahçe2–2Slavia Praha20 Oct · home
Pick: Fenerbahçe 48% · missed
W
Fenerbahçe3–0Alanyaspor17 Oct · home
Pick: Fenerbahçe 49% · hit
L
Aston Villa6–0Fenerbahçe14 Oct · away
Pick: Fenerbahçe 45% · missed

About this match

Çorum FK and Fenerbahçe meet in Süper Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Corum Stadyumu. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Çorum FK win 27.0%, draw 21.5%, Fenerbahçe win 51.5%. The pick is Fenerbahçe win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 56.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.