ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone G Italy Group G - 11 2026

Albalonga vs Afragolese

Albalonga Home · Elo 1,502
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Afragolese Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Afragolese win
Albalonga win
36.8%
Draw
25.5%
Afragolese winPick
37.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.6%
No43.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.1%
Under 2.541.9%

How much we know

Albalonga history31 matches
Afragolese history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Afragolese are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,502 against 1,505. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Albalonga score more

    1.55 goals a game over 31 matches for Albalonga, against 1.32 over 34 for Afragolese.

  • Afragolese concede fewer

    Albalonga concede 1.65 a game, Afragolese 1.35.

  • Albalonga games more often go over 2.5 goals

    65% of Albalonga matches, against 47% for Afragolese. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Albalonga
Afragolese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1502.4
ELO
1505.5
31
ELO · Matches
34
1502.4
Current Team ELO
1505.5
1505.5
Current Opponent ELO
1502.4
-3.11
Current ELO Difference
3.11
0.50
Expected score
0.50
31
History Matches
34
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
50.02
Overperformance
50.48
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
2.20
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.70
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
31
Matches
34
1.42
PPG
1.44
41.9%
Win rate
38.2%
16.1%
Draw rate
29.4%
41.9%
Loss rate
32.4%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
64.5%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
35.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
17
2.00
PPG
1.06
60.0%
Win rate
23.5%
20.0%
Draw rate
35.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
41.2%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
35.3%
53.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
15
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.55
Goals for per game
1.32
74.2%
Scoring rate
67.6%
54.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.06
93.3%
Scoring rate
58.8%
66.7%
BTTS rate
47.1%
31
History Matches
34
1.55
Goals Mean
1.32
1.39
Goals Std
1.25
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
67.6%
41.9%
Scored 2+ rate
41.2%
22.6%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.65
Goals against per game
1.35
80.6%
Conceding rate
70.6%
1.47
Goals against per game
1.29
73.3%
Conceding rate
82.4%
31
History Matches
34
1.65
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.18
Conceded Std
1.26
48.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.1%
32.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
31
History Matches
34
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
2.02
Goal Difference Std
1.81
6.87
Stability score
0.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
34
10
Lead Matches
8
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.75
11
Trailing Matches
11
9.1%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.87
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
8
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
31
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-3.11
PPG-0.02
GF0.22
GA0.29
PPG0.94
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate9.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate6.5%
Scored 2+ rate0.8%
Scored 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.17
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate20.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score6.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.15
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate27.5%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.47
Current Team ELO-3.11
Current Opponent ELO3.11
Current ELO Difference-6.22
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Albalonga

W
Budoni2–4Albalonga18 Oct · away
Pick: Budoni 44% · missed
L
Certosa V. Campagnano4–1Albalonga7 Oct · away
Pick: Albalonga 39% · missed
L
Albalonga0–2Anzio4 Oct · home
Pick: Anzio 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Afragolese

W
Afragolese4–1Aranova31 Oct · home
Pick: Afragolese 63% · hit
D
Anzio0–0Afragolese25 Oct · away
Pick: Anzio 46% · missed
W
Afragolese4–0Atletico Lodigiani17 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Lodigiani 44% · missed
L
Afragolese0–2Ossese4 Oct · home
Pick: Afragolese 63% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Albalonga and Afragolese meet in Serie D - Girone G on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Albalonga win 36.8%, draw 25.5%, Afragolese win 37.7%. The pick is Afragolese win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.1%. Both teams to score: 56.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.