ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone G Italy Group G - 11 2026

Latte Dolce vs Unipomezia

Latte Dolce Home · Elo 1,486
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Unipomezia Away · Elo 1,511
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Latte Dolce win
Latte Dolce winPick
50.5%
Draw
23.6%
Unipomezia win
25.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%

How much we know

Latte Dolce history49 matches
Unipomezia history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Latte Dolce are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Unipomezia are rated 25 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,511 against 1,486. On rating alone Unipomezia would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 49 matches for Latte Dolce, against 1.30 over 37 for Unipomezia.

  • Unipomezia concede fewer

    Latte Dolce concede 1.57 a game, Unipomezia 1.16.

  • Latte Dolce games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Latte Dolce matches, against 43% for Unipomezia. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Latte Dolce
Unipomezia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1485.8
ELO
1511.0
49
ELO · Matches
37
1485.8
Current Team ELO
1511.0
1511.0
Current Opponent ELO
1485.8
-25.20
Current ELO Difference
25.20
0.46
Expected score
0.54
49
History Matches
37
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.92
Overperformance
50.80
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.57
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
37
1.22
PPG
1.38
34.7%
Win rate
35.1%
18.4%
Draw rate
32.4%
46.9%
Loss rate
32.4%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
34.7%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
19
1.50
PPG
1.26
45.8%
Win rate
36.8%
12.5%
Draw rate
15.8%
41.7%
Loss rate
47.4%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
47.4%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
24
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.30
67.3%
Scoring rate
75.7%
51.0%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.16
79.2%
Scoring rate
73.7%
54.2%
BTTS rate
47.4%
49
History Matches
37
1.29
Goals Mean
1.30
1.34
Goals Std
1.09
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.7%
32.7%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
16.3%
Scored 3+ rate
18.9%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.57
Goals against per game
1.16
77.6%
Conceding rate
64.9%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.26
75.0%
Conceding rate
63.2%
49
History Matches
37
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.21
Conceded Std
1.20
51.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
20.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.8%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
37
0.94
Result entropy
1.00
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.53
5.92
Stability score
0.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
37
14
Lead Matches
8
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.79
20
Trailing Matches
9
15.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.92
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
20
Long Rest History Matches
5
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.88
0.55
Portability PPG Range
1.76
64.32
Portability Score
36.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-25.20
PPG-0.15
GF-0.01
GA0.41
PPG0.24
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches12
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate0.2%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches12
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate18.6%
Conceded 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.36
Stability score5.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.61
Portability PPG Range-1.21
Portability Score28.15
Rest days-97.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match0.95
Current Team ELO-25.20
Current Opponent ELO25.20
Current ELO Difference-50.40
Expected score-0.07
History Matches12
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Latte Dolce

W
Teramo0–2Latte Dolce28 Oct · away
Pick: Teramo 62% · missed
D
Certosa V. Campagnano1–1Latte Dolce25 Oct · away
Pick: Certosa V. Campagnano 36% · missed
D
Latte Dolce1–1Anzio18 Oct · home
Pick: Latte Dolce 42% · missed
W
Latte Dolce3–0Sarrabus Ogliastra7 Oct · home
Pick: Latte Dolce 44% · hit
W
Latte Dolce1–0Sarrabus Ogliastra4 Oct · home
Pick: Latte Dolce 44% · hit

Unipomezia

W
Unipomezia4–2Monastir1 Nov · home
Pick: Unipomezia 42% · hit
L
Unipomezia3–4Aranova18 Oct · home
Pick: Unipomezia 66% · missed
L
Unipomezia3–4Teramo7 Oct · home
Pick: Teramo 42% · hit
W
Unipomezia3–1Atletico Lodigiani4 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Lodigiani 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Latte Dolce and Unipomezia meet in Serie D - Girone G on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Latte Dolce win 50.5%, draw 23.6%, Unipomezia win 25.9%. The pick is Latte Dolce win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.