ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain Group 13 - 7 2026

Alcantarilla vs SFC Minerva

Alcantarilla Home · Elo 1,484
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
SFC Minerva Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 07:24 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Draw
Alcantarilla win
31.9%
DrawPick
38.5%
SFC Minerva win
29.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes43.7%
No56.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.6%
Under 2.559.4%

How much we know

Alcantarilla history16 matches
SFC Minerva history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 07:24 UTC
  2. Re-published 5 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why a draw is the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,484 against 1,487. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • SFC Minerva score more

    0.56 goals a game over 16 matches for Alcantarilla, against 0.84 over 49 for SFC Minerva.

  • SFC Minerva concede fewer

    Alcantarilla concede 1.56 a game, SFC Minerva 1.12.

  • Alcantarilla games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Alcantarilla matches, against 33% for SFC Minerva. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Alcantarilla
SFC Minerva
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.8
ELO
1486.6
16
ELO · Matches
49
1483.8
Current Team ELO
1486.6
1486.6
Current Opponent ELO
1483.8
-2.77
Current ELO Difference
2.77
0.50
Expected score
0.50
16
History Matches
49
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.31
Overperformance
48.68
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
16
Matches
49
1.06
PPG
1.22
25.0%
Win rate
30.6%
31.3%
Draw rate
30.6%
43.8%
Loss rate
38.8%
56.3%
Over 1.5 rate
46.9%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
32.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.4%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
26
1.14
PPG
0.85
28.6%
Win rate
19.2%
28.6%
Draw rate
26.9%
42.9%
Loss rate
53.8%
42.9%
Over 1.5 rate
46.2%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
34.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
7
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.56
Goals for per game
0.84
50.0%
Scoring rate
46.9%
31.3%
BTTS rate
28.6%
0.71
Goals for per game
0.62
57.1%
Scoring rate
38.5%
42.9%
BTTS rate
26.9%
16
History Matches
49
0.56
Goals Mean
0.84
0.61
Goals Std
1.15
50.0%
Scored 1+ rate
46.9%
6.3%
Scored 2+ rate
20.4%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.2%
0.71
Venue Goals Mean
0.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.56
Goals against per game
1.12
62.5%
Conceding rate
61.2%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.46
57.1%
Conceding rate
69.2%
16
History Matches
49
1.56
Conceded Mean
1.12
1.58
Conceded Std
1.21
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
37.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.1%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
61.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
53.1%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
61.5%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
16
History Matches
49
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.56
2.45
Stability score
0.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
49
4
Lead Matches
7
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.81
6
Trailing Matches
15
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
542.1
Rest days
178.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
7
Normal Rest History Matches
22
0.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
8
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.17
—
Portability PPG Range
0.33
—
Portability Score
75.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
16
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-2.77
PPG-0.16
GF-0.27
GA0.44
PPG0.30
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-33
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-19
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-33
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.54
Scored 1+ rate3.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.52
History Matches-33
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.37
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate6.9%
Conceded 3+ rate23.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.45
History Matches-33
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score1.85
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.06
Eligible Matches-33
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate3.6%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-33
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days364.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-17
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO-2.77
Current Opponent ELO2.77
Current ELO Difference-5.54
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-33
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-1.37
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Alcantarilla

L
Alcantarilla0–2Los Garres31 Oct · home
Pick: Alcantarilla 55% · missed
L
UCAM Murcia II2–1Alcantarilla24 Oct · away
Pick: UCAM Murcia II 64% · hit
D
Alcantarilla1–1Santa Cruz4 Oct · home
Pick: Santa Cruz 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SFC Minerva

L
Bala Azul2–0SFC Minerva1 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 40% · missed
L
SFC Minerva1–3Cotillas CD25 Oct · home
Pick: SFC Minerva 60% · missed
W
Mazarrón FC0–1SFC Minerva4 Oct · away
Pick: Mazarrón FC 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Alcantarilla and SFC Minerva meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 07:24 UTC: Alcantarilla win 31.9%, draw 38.5%, SFC Minerva win 29.6%. The pick is a draw. Over 2.5 goals: 40.6%. Both teams to score: 43.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.