ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 Spain Group 13 - 7 2026

Mazarrón FC vs Los Garres

Mazarrón FC Home · Elo 1,543
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Los Garres Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 07:24 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mazarrón FC win
Mazarrón FC winPick
68.9%
Draw
18.1%
Los Garres win
13.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.8%
No57.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%

How much we know

Mazarrón FC history35 matches
Los Garres history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 07:24 UTC
  2. Re-published 5 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Mazarrón FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mazarrón FC are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,543 against 1,490. On rating alone Mazarrón FC would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Mazarrón FC score far more

    1.40 goals a game over 35 matches for Mazarrón FC, against 0.67 over 3 for Los Garres.

  • Mazarrón FC concede fewer

    Mazarrón FC concede 1.00 a game, Los Garres 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    31% of Mazarrón FC matches, against 33% for Los Garres. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mazarrón FC
Los Garres
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.1
ELO
1490.0
35
ELO · Matches
3
1543.1
Current Team ELO
1490.0
1490.0
Current Opponent ELO
1543.1
53.07
Current ELO Difference
-53.07
0.58
Expected score
0.42
35
History Matches
3
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.13
54.07
Overperformance
48.24
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.67
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
33.3%
10
Matches
3
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.67
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
33.3%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.67
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.63
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
35
Matches
3
1.54
PPG
1.00
37.1%
Win rate
33.3%
42.9%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
31.4%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
Venue performance10 signals
100
18
Matches
1
1.67
PPG
0.00
44.4%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
27.8%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
18
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.40
Goals for per game
0.67
80.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
54.3%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.00
83.3%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
35
History Matches
3
1.40
Goals Mean
0.67
1.20
Goals Std
0.94
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
33.3%
31.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
68.6%
Conceding rate
66.7%
0.83
Goals against per game
2.00
61.1%
Conceding rate
100.0%
35
History Matches
3
1.00
Conceded Mean
2.00
0.89
Conceded Std
1.63
22.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
35
History Matches
3
0.96
Result entropy
0.58
1.46
Goal Difference Std
2.49
4.16
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
3
11
Lead Matches
1
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
1.00
8
Trailing Matches
2
37.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
164.3
Rest days
371.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
15
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
35
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO53.07
PPG0.54
GF0.73
GA-1.00
PPG1.67
PPG0.00
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.47
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate38.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.83
History Matches32
Goals Mean0.73
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate46.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate20.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.73
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-1.00
Conceded Std-0.74
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.44
Conceded 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Conceded Mean-1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches32
Result entropy0.38
Goal Difference Std-1.04
Stability score-37.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.25
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate37.5%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-206.6
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.42
Long Rest History Matches14
Long Rest Points Per Match1.60
Current Team ELO53.07
Current Opponent ELO-53.07
Current ELO Difference106.1
Expected score0.15
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.20
Overperformance5.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mazarrón FC

L
Algar2–1Mazarrón FC24 Oct · away
Pick: Algar 35% · hit
L
Mazarrón FC0–1SFC Minerva4 Oct · home
Pick: Mazarrón FC 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Los Garres

W
Alcantarilla0–2Los Garres31 Oct · away
Pick: Alcantarilla 55% · missed
L
Los Garres1–2Águilas II24 Oct · home
Pick: Águilas II 47% · hit
L
San Javier1–0Los Garres4 Oct · away
Pick: San Javier 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mazarrón FC and Los Garres meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 07:24 UTC: Mazarrón FC win 68.9%, draw 18.1%, Los Garres win 13.0%. The pick is Mazarrón FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 42.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.