ScoreProb
Pernambucano - 1 Brazil Round 5 2027

América PE vs Ipojuca

América PE Home · Elo 1,552
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ipojuca Away · Elo 1,487
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: América PE win
América PE winPick
54.2%
Draw
25.7%
Ipojuca win
20.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%

How much we know

América PE history9 matches
Ipojuca history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why América PE are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • América PE are rated 65 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,552 against 1,487. On rating alone América PE would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • América PE score far more

    2.22 goals a game over 9 matches for América PE, against 1.33 over 6 for Ipojuca.

  • América PE concede fewer

    América PE concede 0.44 a game, Ipojuca 1.33.

  • Ipojuca games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of América PE matches, against 67% for Ipojuca. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 1 Nov 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
América PE
Ipojuca
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1552.1
ELO
1487.4
9
ELO · Matches
6
1552.1
Current Team ELO
1487.4
1487.4
Current Opponent ELO
1552.1
64.71
Current ELO Difference
-64.71
0.59
Expected score
0.41
9
History Matches
6
0.30
Residual Mean
-0.07
59.27
Overperformance
48.29
0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
9
Matches
6
2.33
PPG
1.00
2.22
Goals for per game
1.33
0.44
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Win rate
16.7%
2.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
1.62
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.33
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.92
1.69
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
9
Matches
6
2.33
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
16.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
5
Matches
2
2.60
PPG
0.50
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
5
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.22
Goals for per game
1.33
88.9%
Scoring rate
83.3%
44.4%
BTTS rate
83.3%
2.40
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
9
History Matches
6
2.22
Goals Mean
1.33
1.62
Goals Std
0.94
88.9%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
22.2%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
2.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.44
Goals against per game
1.33
44.4%
Conceding rate
83.3%
0.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
9
History Matches
6
0.44
Conceded Mean
1.33
0.50
Conceded Std
0.75
0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
0.40
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
55.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
9
History Matches
6
0.58
Result entropy
0.92
1.69
Goal Difference Std
1.00
42.06
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
4
2
Lead Matches
0
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
1.00
Lead Points Retention
—
0
Trailing Matches
2
—
Non-loss rate
50.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
4
0.83
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
2.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.25
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
371.0
Rest days
386.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
5
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
2
Long Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
9
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO64.71
PPG1.33
GF0.89
GA-0.89
PPG2.10
PPG1.00
PPG1.33
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate38.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate60.0%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.89
Goals Std0.67
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate33.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std0.67
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.89
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate38.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.50
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.34
Goal Difference Std0.69
Stability score34.12
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches2
Trailing Matches-2
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-15.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.80
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.67
Current Team ELO64.71
Current Opponent ELO-64.71
Current ELO Difference129.4
Expected score0.18
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.37
Overperformance10.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

América PE

W
América PE1–0Vera Cruz1 Nov · home
Pick: América PE 61% · hit
W
Guarany de Sobral0–7América PE29 Oct · away
Pick: Guarany de Sobral 42% · missed
W
Sete de Setembro0–2América PE24 Oct · away
Pick: Sete de Setembro 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ipojuca

D
Sete de Setembro2–2Ipojuca28 Oct · away
Pick: Sete de Setembro 53% · missed
W
Ipojuca1–0Guarany de Sobral21 Oct · home
Pick: Guarany de Sobral 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

América PE and Ipojuca meet in Pernambucano - 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: América PE win 54.2%, draw 25.7%, Ipojuca win 20.1%. The pick is América PE win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.6%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.