ScoreProb
Pernambucano - 1 Brazil Round 5 2027

Vera Cruz vs Guarany de Sobral

Vera Cruz Home · Elo 1,446
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Guarany de Sobral Away · Elo 1,500
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Guarany de Sobral win
Vera Cruz win
24.7%
Draw
25.0%
Guarany de Sobral winPick
50.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.3%
No52.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.6%
Under 2.553.4%

How much we know

Vera Cruz history8 matches
Guarany de Sobral history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Guarany de Sobral are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Guarany de Sobral are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,500 against 1,446. On rating alone Guarany de Sobral would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Guarany de Sobral score more

    0.75 goals a game over 8 matches for Vera Cruz, against 1.13 over 16 for Guarany de Sobral.

  • Guarany de Sobral concede fewer

    Vera Cruz concede 2.25 a game, Guarany de Sobral 0.94.

  • Vera Cruz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Vera Cruz matches, against 31% for Guarany de Sobral. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vera Cruz
Guarany de Sobral
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1446.0
ELO
1500.3
8
ELO · Matches
16
1446.0
Current Team ELO
1500.3
1500.3
Current Opponent ELO
1446.0
-54.37
Current ELO Difference
54.37
0.42
Expected score
0.58
8
History Matches
16
-0.34
Residual Mean
0.00
40.39
Overperformance
50.04
-0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
8
Matches
10
0.25
PPG
1.30
0.75
Goals for per game
1.30
2.25
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
2.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.51
Overall performance9 signals
90
8
Matches
16
0.25
PPG
1.38
0.0%
Win rate
37.5%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
31.3%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
8
0.50
PPG
0.75
0.0%
Win rate
12.5%
50.0%
Draw rate
37.5%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
4
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.75
Goals for per game
1.13
62.5%
Scoring rate
62.5%
62.5%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
100.0%
BTTS rate
62.5%
8
History Matches
16
0.75
Goals Mean
1.13
0.66
Goals Std
1.11
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
12.5%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
6.3%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.25
Goals against per game
0.94
100.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
2.50
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
8
History Matches
16
2.25
Conceded Mean
0.94
1.20
Conceded Std
0.97
75.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.8%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
2.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
8
History Matches
16
0.51
Result entropy
0.99
1.22
Goal Difference Std
1.33
48.81
Stability score
1.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
16
1
Lead Matches
3
0.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.33
Lead Points Retention
0.78
4
Trailing Matches
3
25.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.38
1.17
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
1.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
386.0
Rest days
171.8
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
4
Normal Rest History Matches
8
0.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
2
Long Rest History Matches
7
0.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.08
—
Portability PPG Range
0.16
—
Portability Score
86.30
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
8
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-54.37
PPG-1.13
GF-0.38
GA1.31
PPG-0.25
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.05
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.38
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.38
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean1.31
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.38
Conceded 2+ rate56.3%
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.47
Goal Difference Std-0.11
Stability score47.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.67
Lead Points Retention-0.44
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.67
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days214.2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.57
Current Team ELO-54.37
Current Opponent ELO54.37
Current ELO Difference-108.7
Expected score-0.16
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.34
Overperformance-9.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vera Cruz

L
América PE1–0Vera Cruz1 Nov · away
Pick: América PE 61% · hit
D
Vera Cruz1–1Íbis27 Oct · home
Pick: Vera Cruz 54% · missed
W
Vera Cruz2–0Sete de Setembro18 Oct · home
Pick: Sete de Setembro 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Guarany de Sobral

W
Guarany de Sobral1–0Sete de Setembro2 Nov · home
Pick: Guarany de Sobral 36% · hit
L
Guarany de Sobral0–7América PE29 Oct · home
Pick: Guarany de Sobral 42% · missed
L
Íbis5–2Guarany de Sobral24 Oct · away
Pick: Íbis 36% · hit
L
Ipojuca1–0Guarany de Sobral21 Oct · away
Pick: Guarany de Sobral 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vera Cruz and Guarany de Sobral meet in Pernambucano - 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Vera Cruz win 24.7%, draw 25.0%, Guarany de Sobral win 50.3%. The pick is Guarany de Sobral win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%. Both teams to score: 47.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.