ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Anderlecht vs Red Bull Salzburg

Anderlecht Home · Elo 1,567
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Red Bull Salzburg Away · Elo 1,603
Lotto Park, Brussels Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Anderlecht win
Anderlecht winPick
39.1%
Draw
25.7%
Red Bull Salzburg win
35.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.8%
No45.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.9%
Under 2.542.1%

How much we know

Anderlecht history84 matches
Red Bull Salzburg history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Anderlecht are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Red Bull Salzburg are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,567. On rating alone Red Bull Salzburg would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Red Bull Salzburg score more

    1.44 goals a game over 84 matches for Anderlecht, against 1.76 over 84 for Red Bull Salzburg.

  • Defences are close

    Anderlecht concede 1.35 a game, Red Bull Salzburg 1.30.

  • Red Bull Salzburg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Anderlecht matches, against 58% for Red Bull Salzburg. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Anderlecht
Red Bull Salzburg
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1566.8
ELO
1603.2
84
ELO · Matches
84
1566.8
Current Team ELO
1603.2
1603.2
Current Opponent ELO
1566.8
-36.38
Current ELO Difference
36.38
0.45
Expected score
0.55
84
History Matches
84
0.04
Residual Mean
0.06
53.29
Overperformance
55.15
0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.70
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.11
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
84
Matches
84
1.40
PPG
1.55
39.3%
Win rate
44.0%
22.6%
Draw rate
22.6%
38.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
48.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.9%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
42
Matches
41
1.79
PPG
1.66
52.4%
Win rate
46.3%
21.4%
Draw rate
26.8%
26.2%
Loss rate
26.8%
69.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.4%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
58.5%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
42
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.44
Goals for per game
1.76
73.8%
Scoring rate
82.1%
51.2%
BTTS rate
60.7%
1.79
Goals for per game
2.00
81.0%
Scoring rate
87.8%
54.8%
BTTS rate
65.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
84
History Matches
84
1.44
Goals Mean
1.76
1.28
Goals Std
1.44
73.8%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.8%
1.79
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.30
71.4%
Conceding rate
76.2%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.20
61.9%
Conceding rate
75.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
84
History Matches
84
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Conceded Std
1.13
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.0%
13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
26.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.4%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
84
History Matches
84
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.77
Goal Difference Std
2.04
2.52
Stability score
3.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
84
Eligible Matches
82
20
Lead Matches
32
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.78
31
Trailing Matches
22
19.4%
Non-loss rate
31.8%
12.9%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
84
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.26
Rest days
81.11
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
19
Short Rest History Matches
16
1.21
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
42
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
2
2.50
PPG
2.00
75.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
4
Current Competition Matches
2
2.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
10
Competition Season Count
13
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.53
2.17
Portability PPG Range
1.58
45.28
Portability Score
48.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
84
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-36.38
PPG-0.14
GF-0.32
GA0.05
PPG0.50
PPG0.13
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Failed-to-score rate8.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.7%
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.32
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.92
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate4.8%
Conceded 2+ rate11.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score-0.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.01
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-12
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.58
Portability Score-3.47
Rest days0.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.79
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.68
Current Team ELO-36.38
Current Opponent ELO36.38
Current ELO Difference-72.76
Expected score-0.10
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Anderlecht

W
Anderlecht4–1KVC Westerlo31 Oct · home
Pick: Anderlecht 59% · hit
L
Gent4–0Anderlecht25 Oct · away
Pick: Gent 52% · hit
W
Jagiellonia0–3Anderlecht22 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia 51% · missed
L
Beerschot VA2–1Anderlecht18 Oct · away
Pick: Anderlecht 44% · missed
L
Dinamo Zagreb1–0Anderlecht15 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 43% · hit

Red Bull Salzburg

W
Red Bull Salzburg5–1Austria Lustenau1 Nov · home
Pick: Red Bull Salzburg 64% · hit
W
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz2–3Red Bull Salzburg28 Oct · away
Pick: Red Bull Salzburg 52% · hit
W
Lask Linz1–3Red Bull Salzburg25 Oct · away
Pick: Lask Linz 47% · missed
D
Celje2–2Red Bull Salzburg22 Oct · away
Pick: Celje 50% · missed
W
Red Bull Salzburg3–0SCR Altach18 Oct · home
Pick: Red Bull Salzburg 65% · hit

About this match

Anderlecht and Red Bull Salzburg meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Lotto Park, Brussels. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Anderlecht win 39.1%, draw 25.7%, Red Bull Salzburg win 35.2%. The pick is Anderlecht win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.9%. Both teams to score: 54.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.