ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia

NEC Nijmegen Home · Elo 1,569
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Omonia Nicosia Away · Elo 1,705
Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Omonia Nicosia win
NEC Nijmegen win
31.4%
Draw
24.3%
Omonia Nicosia winPick
44.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.8%
Under 2.538.2%

How much we know

NEC Nijmegen history72 matches
Omonia Nicosia history82 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Omonia Nicosia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Omonia Nicosia are rated 136 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,705 against 1,569. On rating alone Omonia Nicosia would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.03 goals a game over 72 matches for NEC Nijmegen, against 1.90 over 82 for Omonia Nicosia.

  • Omonia Nicosia concede fewer

    NEC Nijmegen concede 1.53 a game, Omonia Nicosia 0.85.

  • NEC Nijmegen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    72% of NEC Nijmegen matches, against 52% for Omonia Nicosia. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
NEC Nijmegen
Omonia Nicosia
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.8
ELO
1705.0
72
ELO · Matches
82
1568.8
Current Team ELO
1705.0
1705.0
Current Opponent ELO
1568.8
-136.2
Current ELO Difference
136.2
0.31
Expected score
0.69
72
History Matches
82
0.04
Residual Mean
0.12
53.39
Overperformance
60.01
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.90
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
2.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
82
1.61
PPG
1.95
44.4%
Win rate
57.3%
27.8%
Draw rate
23.2%
27.8%
Loss rate
19.5%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
52.4%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
26.8%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
40
1.66
PPG
1.53
45.7%
Win rate
42.5%
28.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.7%
Loss rate
32.5%
94.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
54.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.5%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
35
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.03
Goals for per game
1.90
88.9%
Scoring rate
87.8%
73.6%
BTTS rate
47.6%
2.29
Goals for per game
1.80
97.1%
Scoring rate
87.5%
77.1%
BTTS rate
57.5%
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
82
2.03
Goals Mean
1.90
1.30
Goals Std
1.38
88.9%
Scored 1+ rate
87.8%
63.9%
Scored 2+ rate
52.4%
34.7%
Scored 3+ rate
29.3%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.53
Goals against per game
0.85
81.9%
Conceding rate
56.1%
1.54
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
67.5%
—
Goals against per game
0.50
—
Conceding rate
50.0%
72
History Matches
82
1.53
Conceded Mean
0.85
1.14
Conceded Std
0.91
44.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.2%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.1%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.9%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
12.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
2.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.9%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
12.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.5%
2.9%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
18.1%
Clean-sheet rate
43.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
82
0.98
Result entropy
0.89
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.75
2.42
Stability score
11.10
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
82
22
Lead Matches
41
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
82.9%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.87
25
Trailing Matches
11
40.0%
Non-loss rate
54.5%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
82
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
1.31
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
71.95
Rest days
84.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
40
Normal Rest History Matches
57
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.05
26
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
0
Matches
2
—
PPG
2.00
—
Win rate
50.0%
—
Draw rate
50.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
0
Current Competition Matches
2
—
Current Competition PPG
2.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.86
Portability PPG Std
0.36
2.50
Portability PPG Range
1.08
36.84
Portability Score
58.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
82
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-136.2
PPG-0.34
GF0.13
GA0.67
PPG0.13
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-10
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate1.1%
Scored 2+ rate11.4%
Scored 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.71
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.67
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Conceded 2+ rate21.3%
Conceded 3+ rate14.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-10
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-8.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.52
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-19
Lead Win Rate8.0%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.23
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches-2
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.50
Portability PPG Range1.42
Portability Score-21.50
Rest days-12.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.13
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.54
Current Team ELO-136.2
Current Opponent ELO136.2
Current ELO Difference-272.3
Expected score-0.37
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

NEC Nijmegen

L
Heerenveen1–0NEC Nijmegen31 Oct · away
Pick: NEC Nijmegen 42% · missed
D
NEC Nijmegen2–2Groningen25 Oct · home
Pick: NEC Nijmegen 64% · missed
W
Dinamo Zagreb2–4NEC Nijmegen22 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 64% · missed
D
NEC Nijmegen2–2Fortuna Sittard18 Oct · home
Pick: NEC Nijmegen 62% · missed
D
NEC Nijmegen1–1Levski Sofia15 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Sofia 51% · missed

Omonia Nicosia

W
Omonia Nicosia2–0AEL31 Oct · home
Pick: Omonia Nicosia 60% · hit
L
AEK Larnaca2–0Omonia Nicosia26 Oct · away
Pick: Omonia Nicosia 44% · missed
L
Omonia Nicosia1–4Benfica22 Oct · home
Pick: Benfica 45% · hit
D
Omonia Nicosia2–2Olympiakos19 Oct · home
Pick: Omonia Nicosia 66% · missed
W
Celje0–3Omonia Nicosia15 Oct · away
Pick: Celje 47% · missed

About this match

NEC Nijmegen and Omonia Nicosia meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Stadion de Goffert, Nijmegen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: NEC Nijmegen win 31.4%, draw 24.3%, Omonia Nicosia win 44.4%. The pick is Omonia Nicosia win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.8%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.