ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain Group 11 - 10 2026

Andratx vs Cardassar

Andratx Home · Elo 1,478
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cardassar Away · Elo 1,488
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Andratx win
Andratx winPick
50.9%
Draw
27.1%
Cardassar win
22.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%

How much we know

Andratx history48 matches
Cardassar history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Andratx are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,478 against 1,488. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.17 goals a game over 48 matches for Andratx, against 1.15 over 33 for Cardassar.

  • Defences are close

    Andratx concede 1.50 a game, Cardassar 1.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Andratx matches, against 48% for Cardassar. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Andratx
Cardassar
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.9
ELO
1488.5
48
ELO · Matches
33
1477.9
Current Team ELO
1488.5
1488.5
Current Opponent ELO
1477.9
-10.60
Current ELO Difference
10.60
0.48
Expected score
0.52
48
History Matches
33
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
48.42
Overperformance
48.70
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
1.30
Goals for per game
1.20
1.90
Goals against per game
1.70
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
33
1.29
PPG
1.33
35.4%
Win rate
36.4%
22.9%
Draw rate
24.2%
41.7%
Loss rate
39.4%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
27.1%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
17
1.71
PPG
1.18
50.0%
Win rate
29.4%
20.8%
Draw rate
29.4%
29.2%
Loss rate
41.2%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
24
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.17
Goals for per game
1.15
70.8%
Scoring rate
78.8%
47.9%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.06
75.0%
Scoring rate
82.4%
41.7%
BTTS rate
64.7%
48
History Matches
33
1.17
Goals Mean
1.15
1.05
Goals Std
0.82
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.8%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.06
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.50
Goals against per game
1.55
70.8%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.76
58.3%
Conceding rate
82.4%
48
History Matches
33
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.34
Conceded Std
1.30
45.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
22.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.2%
1.17
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
33
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.65
2.60
Stability score
1.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
32
14
Lead Matches
6
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
1.00
17
Trailing Matches
9
11.8%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.3
Rest days
182.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
35
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
12
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.31
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.55
Portability PPG Std
—
1.10
Portability PPG Range
—
47.60
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-10.60
PPG-0.04
GF0.02
GA-0.05
PPG0.53
PPG0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate24.0%
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches15
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.68
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Conceded 2+ rate9.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.48
History Matches15
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.68
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.44
Current Team ELO-10.60
Current Opponent ELO10.60
Current ELO Difference-21.21
Expected score-0.03
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Andratx

L
Sineu4–2Andratx31 Oct · away
Pick: Andratx 37% · missed
D
Andratx4–4Migjorn24 Oct · home
Pick: Andratx 67% · missed
L
Platges Calvià1–0Andratx17 Oct · away
Pick: Platges Calvià 44% · hit
W
Andratx2–1Santanyí30 Aug · home
Pick: Andratx 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Cardassar

L
Porreres2–1Cardassar1 Nov · away
Pick: Porreres 53% · hit
D
Sineu1–1Cardassar25 Oct · away
Pick: Sineu 37% · missed
L
Cardassar1–2Mercadal18 Oct · home
Pick: Mercadal 36% · hit
W
Cardassar6–2Alcúdia4 Oct · home
Pick: Alcúdia 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Andratx and Cardassar meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Andratx win 50.9%, draw 27.1%, Cardassar win 22.0%. The pick is Andratx win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.