ScoreProb
Ligue 1 France Round 10 2026

Angers vs Nice

Angers Home · Elo 1,488
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nice Away · Elo 1,505
Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nice win
Angers win
26.8%
Draw
22.9%
Nice winPick
50.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.9%
No50.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.9%
Under 2.553.1%

How much we know

Angers history65 matches
Nice history76 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Nice are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,488 against 1,505. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Nice score more

    0.94 goals a game over 65 matches for Angers, against 1.28 over 76 for Nice.

  • Defences are close

    Angers concede 1.35 a game, Nice 1.41.

  • Nice games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Angers matches, against 50% for Nice. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Angers
Nice@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.2
ELO
1505.2
65
ELO · Matches
76
1488.2
Current Team ELO
1505.2
1505.2
Current Opponent ELO
1488.2
-17.02
Current ELO Difference
17.02
0.48
Expected score
0.52
65
History Matches
76
0.00
Residual Mean
0.00
49.95
Overperformance
50.25
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.10
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
76
1.20
PPG
1.22
32.3%
Win rate
31.6%
23.1%
Draw rate
27.6%
44.6%
Loss rate
40.8%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
32.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
32.9%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
39
1.43
PPG
0.87
40.0%
Win rate
20.5%
22.9%
Draw rate
25.6%
37.1%
Loss rate
53.8%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
34.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
17.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
35
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.94
Goals for per game
1.28
61.5%
Scoring rate
68.4%
40.0%
BTTS rate
53.9%
1.14
Goals for per game
1.03
68.6%
Scoring rate
64.1%
45.7%
BTTS rate
59.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
0.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
65
History Matches
76
0.94
Goals Mean
1.28
0.96
Goals Std
1.25
61.5%
Scored 1+ rate
68.4%
23.1%
Scored 2+ rate
34.2%
7.7%
Scored 3+ rate
17.1%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.03
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.41
72.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.59
74.3%
Conceding rate
82.1%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
65
History Matches
76
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.41
1.26
Conceded Std
1.22
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.8%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.8%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
76
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.89
3.20
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
76
14
Lead Matches
24
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.72
23
Trailing Matches
25
17.4%
Non-loss rate
16.0%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
76
0.35
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.14
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
11
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.36
41
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.23
21
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
10
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.53
Portability PPG Range
1.63
44.02
Portability Score
46.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
76
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-17.02
PPG-0.02
GF-0.34
GA-0.05
PPG-1.00
PPG0.56
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate7.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.34
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.52
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score1.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate23.2%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate1.4%
Trailing Win Rate0.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score-1.98
Rest days-0.76
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-9
Short Rest Points Per Match1.64
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO-17.02
Current Opponent ELO17.02
Current ELO Difference-34.05
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Angers

D
Angers0–0Lorient25 Oct · home
Pick: Lorient 44% · missed
L
Angers2–5Marseille18 Oct · home
Pick: Marseille 52% · hit
W
Auxerre1–3Angers29 Aug · away
Pick: Auxerre 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Nice

W
Stade Brestois 291–2Nice23 Oct · away
Pick: Stade Brestois 29 40% · missed
L
Lyon2–1Nice18 Oct · away
Pick: Lyon 63% · hit
L
Paris FC3–0Nice30 Aug · away
Pick: Paris FC 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Angers and Nice meet in Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. The match is played at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Angers. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Angers win 26.8%, draw 22.9%, Nice win 50.3%. The pick is Nice win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.9%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.