ScoreProb
Ligue 1 France Round 10 2026

Stade Brestois 29 vs Lyon

Stade Brestois 29 Home · Elo 1,490
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lyon Away · Elo 1,645
Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lyon win
Stade Brestois 29 win
30.6%
Draw
21.4%
Lyon winPick
48.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.2%
Under 2.543.8%

How much we know

Stade Brestois 29 history67 matches
Lyon history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Lyon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lyon are rated 155 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,645 against 1,490. On rating alone Lyon would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Lyon score more

    1.36 goals a game over 67 matches for Stade Brestois 29, against 1.92 over 83 for Lyon.

  • Lyon concede fewer

    Stade Brestois 29 concede 1.79 a game, Lyon 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Stade Brestois 29 matches, against 60% for Lyon. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stade Brestois 29
Lyon@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1489.9
ELO
1644.7
67
ELO · Matches
83
1489.9
Current Team ELO
1644.7
1644.7
Current Opponent ELO
1489.9
-154.8
Current ELO Difference
154.8
0.29
Expected score
0.71
67
History Matches
83
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.09
49.37
Overperformance
56.96
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.90
1.30
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.50
10.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.89
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
83
1.27
PPG
1.89
32.8%
Win rate
57.8%
28.4%
Draw rate
15.7%
38.8%
Loss rate
26.5%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.9%
58.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.2%
35.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
41
1.33
PPG
1.46
33.3%
Win rate
41.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
22.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
36.6%
84.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.7%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
39.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
33
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.92
71.6%
Scoring rate
86.7%
53.7%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.52
Goals for per game
1.59
75.8%
Scoring rate
78.0%
51.5%
BTTS rate
53.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
67
History Matches
83
1.36
Goals Mean
1.92
1.10
Goals Std
1.38
71.6%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
57.8%
14.9%
Scored 3+ rate
25.3%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.59
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.79
Goals against per game
1.19
76.1%
Conceding rate
62.7%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.32
66.7%
Conceding rate
65.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
67
History Matches
83
1.79
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.50
Conceded Std
1.16
55.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.6%
29.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.32
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.1%
24.2%
Failed-to-score rate
22.0%
23.9%
Clean-sheet rate
37.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
83
0.99
Result entropy
0.87
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.82
0.75
Stability score
12.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
83
23
Lead Matches
32
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.78
27
Trailing Matches
14
25.9%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
7.4%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.16
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
15
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.73
39
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.91
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
1.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
8
Competition Season Count
9
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.81
Portability PPG Std
0.34
2.50
Portability PPG Range
1.17
38.11
Portability Score
59.40
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-154.8
PPG-0.62
GF-0.56
GA0.60
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.13
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate15.1%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.28
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.88
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate15.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.68
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.12
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-11.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.36
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate0.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std0.47
Portability PPG Range1.33
Portability Score-21.28
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-12
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.65
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Current Team ELO-154.8
Current Opponent ELO154.8
Current ELO Difference-309.6
Expected score-0.42
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-7.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stade Brestois 29

W
Lorient0–2Stade Brestois 292 Nov · away
Pick: Lorient 41% · missed
L
Stade Brestois 291–2Nice23 Oct · home
Pick: Stade Brestois 29 40% · missed
D
Lille1–1Stade Brestois 2917 Oct · away
Pick: Lille 62% · missed
D
Stade Brestois 292–2Toulouse29 Aug · home
Pick: Stade Brestois 29 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lyon

L
1899 Hoffenheim3–0Lyon22 Oct · away
Pick: Lyon 53% · missed
W
Lyon2–1Nice18 Oct · home
Pick: Lyon 63% · hit
W
Lyon3–2Crystal Palace15 Oct · home
Pick: Crystal Palace 39% · missed
D
Lyon1–1Le Havre29 Aug · home
Pick: Lyon 52% · missed
L
Lyon1–2Fenerbahçe26 Aug · home
Pick: Fenerbahçe 39% · hit

About this match

Stade Brestois 29 and Lyon meet in Ligue 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. The match is played at Stade Francis-Le-Blé, Brest. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Stade Brestois 29 win 30.6%, draw 21.4%, Lyon win 48.0%. The pick is Lyon win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.2%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.