ScoreProb
1. Division Cyprus Round 9 2026

Apoel Nicosia vs Aris

Apoel Nicosia Home · Elo 1,522
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aris Away · Elo 1,518
GSP Stadium, Nicosia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Apoel Nicosia win
Apoel Nicosia winPick
40.2%
Draw
27.4%
Aris win
32.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.2%
No46.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Apoel Nicosia history65 matches
Aris history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Apoel Nicosia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,522 against 1,518. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Aris score more

    1.45 goals a game over 65 matches for Apoel Nicosia, against 1.73 over 63 for Aris.

  • Defences are close

    Apoel Nicosia concede 1.28 a game, Aris 1.24.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Apoel Nicosia matches, against 59% for Aris. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Apoel Nicosia
Aris
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.8
ELO
1518.1
65
ELO · Matches
63
1521.8
Current Team ELO
1518.1
1518.1
Current Opponent ELO
1521.8
3.67
Current ELO Difference
-3.67
0.51
Expected score
0.49
65
History Matches
63
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
51.81
Overperformance
50.90
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.90
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
63
1.37
PPG
1.52
36.9%
Win rate
42.9%
26.2%
Draw rate
23.8%
36.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
52.3%
Over 2.5 rate
58.7%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
32
1.51
PPG
1.09
40.0%
Win rate
28.1%
31.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
46.9%
77.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.9%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
35
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
1.73
70.8%
Scoring rate
81.0%
50.8%
BTTS rate
50.8%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.25
74.3%
Scoring rate
71.9%
51.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
65
History Matches
63
1.45
Goals Mean
1.73
1.38
Goals Std
1.30
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
44.6%
Scored 2+ rate
52.4%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.28
Goals against per game
1.24
73.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.38
68.6%
Conceding rate
71.9%
65
History Matches
63
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.00
Conceded Std
1.18
41.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.1%
10.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.7%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
31.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
63
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.86
1.10
Stability score
2.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
63
20
Lead Matches
23
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.86
22
Trailing Matches
20
27.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.00
Rest days
91.15
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
25
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.68
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.48
0.76
Portability PPG Range
1.25
62.80
Portability Score
50.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO3.67
PPG-0.15
GF-0.28
GA0.04
PPG0.42
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate3.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.10
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-1.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate2.3%
Trailing Win Rate4.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.49
Portability Score11.81
Rest days-7.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.16
Current Team ELO3.67
Current Opponent ELO-3.67
Current ELO Difference7.35
Expected score0.01
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Apoel Nicosia

W
Omonia Aradippou1–2Apoel Nicosia1 Nov · away
Pick: Apoel Nicosia 43% · hit
W
Apoel Nicosia5–2Halkanoras28 Oct · home
Pick: Apoel Nicosia 61% · hit
W
Apoel Nicosia4–1Omonia 29is Maiou25 Oct · home
Pick: Apoel Nicosia 54% · hit
D
Pafos0–0Apoel Nicosia19 Oct · away
Pick: Pafos 62% · missed
L
AEK Larnaca3–1Apoel Nicosia29 Aug · away
Pick: AEK Larnaca 55% · hit

Aris

W
AEL1–3Aris25 Oct · away
Pick: Aris 44% · hit
D
Aris1–1AEK Larnaca18 Oct · home
Pick: AEK Larnaca 47% · missed
W
Aris4–0Ethnikos Achna14 Oct · home
Pick: Aris 63% · hit
D
Aris2–2Apollon Limassol29 Aug · home
Pick: Apollon Limassol 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Apoel Nicosia and Aris meet in 1. Division on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at GSP Stadium, Nicosia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Apoel Nicosia win 40.2%, draw 27.4%, Aris win 32.4%. The pick is Apoel Nicosia win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 53.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.