Apollon Smirnis vs Egaleo
Apollon Smirnis
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Egaleo
Match result probability Model pick: Apollon Smirnis win
Apollon Smirnis winPick
34.5%
Draw
34.4%
Egaleo win
31.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.2%
No49.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%
How much we know
Apollon Smirnis history0 matches
Egaleo history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Apollon Smirnis
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Apollon Smirnis are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Apollon Smirnis are rated 44 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,456. On rating alone Apollon Smirnis would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Apollon Smirnis
Egaleo
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1455.7
0
ELO · Matches
43
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1455.7
1455.7
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
44.26
Current ELO Difference
-44.26
0.56
Expected score
0.44
0
History Matches
43
—
Residual Mean
-0.04
—
Overperformance
47.12
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
2.00
—
Goals for per game
1.80
—
Goals against per game
1.20
—
Win rate
60.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
2.00
—
Goals for per game
1.30
—
Goals against per game
0.90
—
Win rate
60.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
43
—
PPG
1.05
—
Win rate
27.9%
—
Draw rate
20.9%
—
Loss rate
51.2%
—
Over 1.5 rate
60.5%
—
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
—
Over 3.5 rate
18.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
20
—
PPG
0.75
—
Win rate
15.0%
—
Draw rate
30.0%
—
Loss rate
55.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
0
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
0.81
—
Scoring rate
53.5%
—
BTTS rate
37.2%
—
Goals for per game
0.85
—
Scoring rate
55.0%
—
BTTS rate
55.0%
0
History Matches
43
—
Goals Mean
0.81
—
Goals Std
0.95
—
Scored 1+ rate
53.5%
—
Scored 2+ rate
18.6%
—
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.40
—
Conceding rate
74.4%
—
Goals against per game
1.80
—
Conceding rate
90.0%
0
History Matches
43
—
Conceded Mean
1.40
—
Conceded Std
1.33
—
Conceded 2+ rate
32.6%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
20.9%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
46.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
46.5%
—
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
45.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
43
—
Result entropy
0.93
—
Goal Difference Std
1.79
—
Stability score
6.57
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
43
0
Lead Matches
8
—
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.88
0
Trailing Matches
18
—
Non-loss rate
5.6%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.49
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
197.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
0
Normal Rest History Matches
24
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.08
0
Long Rest History Matches
17
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.06
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.46
—
Portability PPG Range
1.12
—
Portability Score
52.15
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO44.26
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-43
History Matches-20
History Matches-43
History Matches-43
History Matches-43
Eligible Matches-43
Lead Matches-8
Trailing Matches-18
Halftime Coverage Matches-43
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Long Rest History Matches-17
Current Team ELO44.26
Current Opponent ELO-44.26
Current ELO Difference88.52
Expected score0.13
History Matches-43
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Apollon Smirnis
W
Amfiali1–4Apollon Smirnis1 Nov · away
Pick: Amfiali 50% · missed W
Apollon Smirnis3–2Ethnikos Piraeus25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 35% · missed W
Apollon Smirnis1–0Proodeftiki4 Oct · home
Pick: Apollon Smirnis 50% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Egaleo
D
Egaleo2–2Vyrona1 Nov · home
Pick: Egaleo 45% · missed W
PAO Rouf0–1Egaleo25 Oct · away
Pick: PAO Rouf 35% · missed W
Amfiali0–3Egaleo18 Oct · away
Pick: Amfiali 35% · missed W
Ialysos0–1Egaleo4 Oct · away
Pick: Ialysos 35% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Apollon Smirnis and Egaleo meet in Gamma Ethniki - Group 8 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Georgios Kamaras Stadium, Athens. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Apollon Smirnis win 34.5%, draw 34.4%, Egaleo win 31.1%. The pick is Apollon Smirnis win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.