ScoreProb
Gamma Ethniki - Group 8 Greece Group 8 - 7 2026

Ethnikos Piraeus vs Afantou

Ethnikos Piraeus Home · Elo 1,623
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Afantou Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ethnikos Piraeus win
Ethnikos Piraeus winPick
67.6%
Draw
20.7%
Afantou win
11.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.2%
No54.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.7%
Under 2.557.3%

How much we know

Ethnikos Piraeus history46 matches
Afantou history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Ethnikos Piraeus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ethnikos Piraeus are rated 143 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,623 against 1,480. On rating alone Ethnikos Piraeus would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Ethnikos Piraeus score more

    1.46 goals a game over 46 matches for Ethnikos Piraeus, against 1.05 over 39 for Afantou.

  • Ethnikos Piraeus concede fewer

    Ethnikos Piraeus concede 0.61 a game, Afantou 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    37% of Ethnikos Piraeus matches, against 36% for Afantou. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 17 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ethnikos Piraeus
Afantou
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1622.6
ELO
1479.9
46
ELO · Matches
39
1622.6
Current Team ELO
1479.9
1479.9
Current Opponent ELO
1622.6
142.7
Current ELO Difference
-142.7
0.69
Expected score
0.31
46
History Matches
39
0.13
Residual Mean
-0.03
59.36
Overperformance
47.86
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.20
0.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.10
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.50
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.72
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
39
2.07
PPG
1.23
58.7%
Win rate
33.3%
30.4%
Draw rate
23.1%
10.9%
Loss rate
43.6%
63.0%
Over 1.5 rate
59.0%
37.0%
Over 2.5 rate
35.9%
15.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.6%
1.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
21
2.29
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
28.6%
29.2%
Draw rate
14.3%
4.2%
Loss rate
57.1%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
38.1%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.8%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
24
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.46
Goals for per game
1.05
78.3%
Scoring rate
64.1%
37.0%
BTTS rate
38.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.76
83.3%
Scoring rate
57.1%
29.2%
BTTS rate
33.3%
46
History Matches
39
1.46
Goals Mean
1.05
1.10
Goals Std
1.08
78.3%
Scored 1+ rate
64.1%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
23.1%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.61
Goals against per game
1.28
41.3%
Conceding rate
64.1%
0.42
Goals against per game
1.52
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
46
History Matches
39
0.61
Conceded Mean
1.28
0.82
Conceded Std
1.36
17.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
2.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
0.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
58.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
58.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
58.7%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
39
0.83
Result entropy
0.97
1.27
Goal Difference Std
1.70
16.62
Stability score
2.92
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
35
19
Lead Matches
8
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.92
6
Trailing Matches
11
50.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.30
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
175.0
Rest days
214.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
29
Normal Rest History Matches
18
2.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
13
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.85
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.04
1.67
Portability PPG Range
0.09
41.24
Portability Score
92.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO142.7
PPG0.83
GF0.41
GA-0.67
PPG1.29
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate14.2%
Scored 2+ rate24.7%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.67
Conceded Std-0.54
Clean-sheet rate22.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.05
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score13.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.76
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate31.8%
Trailing Win Rate7.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.67
Portability PPG Range1.58
Portability Score-50.87
Rest days-39.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.84
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO142.7
Current Opponent ELO-142.7
Current ELO Difference285.4
Expected score0.39
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance11.49
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ethnikos Piraeus

W
Ethnikos Piraeus2–0Ionikos1 Nov · home
Pick: Ethnikos Piraeus 59% · hit
L
Apollon Smirnis3–2Ethnikos Piraeus25 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
L
Ethnikos Piraeus0–1Vyrona18 Oct · home
Pick: Ethnikos Piraeus 63% · missed
D
Ethnikos Piraeus1–1Amfiali4 Oct · home
Pick: Ethnikos Piraeus 68% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Afantou

W
Afantou2–0Ialysos1 Nov · home
Pick: Afantou 62% · hit
W
Apollon Kalyt.0–1Afantou24 Oct · away
Pick: Afantou 41% · hit
D
Afantou0–0Proodeftiki18 Oct · home
Pick: Afantou 62% · missed
D
Afantou0–0PAO Rouf4 Oct · home
Pick: Afantou 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ethnikos Piraeus and Afantou meet in Gamma Ethniki - Group 8 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ethnikos Piraeus win 67.6%, draw 20.7%, Afantou win 11.7%. The pick is Ethnikos Piraeus win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.7%. Both teams to score: 45.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.