ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain Group 11 - 10 2026

Arenal vs Platges Calvià

Arenal Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Platges Calvià Away · Elo 1,481
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arenal win
Arenal winPick
35.3%
Draw
33.1%
Platges Calvià win
31.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.2%
No47.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%

How much we know

Arenal history0 matches
Platges Calvià history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.3%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Arenal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,481. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arenal
Platges Calvià
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.0
ELO
1481.5
0
ELO · Matches
49
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1481.5
1481.5
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
18.55
Current ELO Difference
-18.55
0.53
Expected score
0.47
0
History Matches
49
—
Residual Mean
-0.02
—
Overperformance
48.43
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.40
—
Goals for per game
1.60
—
Goals against per game
1.20
—
Win rate
40.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.40
—
Goals for per game
1.30
—
Goals against per game
1.20
—
Win rate
40.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.07
Overall performance9 signals
90
0
Matches
49
—
PPG
1.43
—
Win rate
40.8%
—
Draw rate
20.4%
—
Loss rate
38.8%
—
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
—
Over 2.5 rate
51.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
0
Matches
25
—
PPG
1.24
—
Win rate
36.0%
—
Draw rate
16.0%
—
Loss rate
48.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
56.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
0
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.39
—
Scoring rate
65.3%
—
BTTS rate
49.0%
—
Goals for per game
1.28
—
Scoring rate
60.0%
—
BTTS rate
44.0%
0
History Matches
49
—
Goals Mean
1.39
—
Goals Std
1.31
—
Scored 1+ rate
65.3%
—
Scored 2+ rate
40.8%
—
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.33
—
Conceding rate
75.5%
—
Goals against per game
1.52
—
Conceding rate
76.0%
0
History Matches
49
—
Conceded Mean
1.33
—
Conceded Std
1.22
—
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
—
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
—
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
—
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
24.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
0
History Matches
49
—
Result entropy
0.96
—
Goal Difference Std
1.71
—
Stability score
3.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
0
Eligible Matches
49
0
Lead Matches
16
—
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.85
0
Trailing Matches
17
—
Non-loss rate
23.5%
—
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
181.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
28
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
0
Long Rest History Matches
20
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.24
—
Portability PPG Range
0.48
—
Portability Score
67.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
0
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO18.55
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-49
History Matches-25
History Matches-49
History Matches-49
History Matches-49
Eligible Matches-49
Lead Matches-16
Trailing Matches-17
Halftime Coverage Matches-49
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-28
Long Rest History Matches-20
Current Team ELO18.55
Current Opponent ELO-18.55
Current ELO Difference37.09
Expected score0.05
History Matches-49

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arenal

L
Binissalem3–0Arenal31 Oct · away
Pick: Binissalem 61% · hit
D
Arenal1–1Manacor21 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 35% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Platges Calvià

W
Platges Calvià5–1Inter Ibiza31 Oct · home
Pick: Platges Calvià 54% · hit
W
Formentera2–3Platges Calvià24 Oct · away
Pick: Formentera 54% · missed
W
Platges Calvià1–0Andratx17 Oct · home
Pick: Platges Calvià 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Arenal and Platges Calvià meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Arenal win 35.3%, draw 33.1%, Platges Calvià win 31.6%. The pick is Arenal win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.9%. Both teams to score: 52.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.