ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 Spain Group 11 - 10 2026

Mercadal vs PE Sant Jordi

Mercadal Home · Elo 1,485
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
PE Sant Jordi Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mercadal win
Mercadal winPick
52.2%
Draw
24.6%
PE Sant Jordi win
23.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.3%
No50.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%

How much we know

Mercadal history47 matches
PE Sant Jordi history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Mercadal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,485 against 1,477. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • PE Sant Jordi score more

    0.98 goals a game over 47 matches for Mercadal, against 1.20 over 15 for PE Sant Jordi.

  • Mercadal concede fewer

    Mercadal concede 1.30 a game, PE Sant Jordi 1.67.

  • PE Sant Jordi games more often go over 2.5 goals

    36% of Mercadal matches, against 53% for PE Sant Jordi. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mercadal
PE Sant Jordi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1485.2
ELO
1476.6
47
ELO · Matches
15
1485.2
Current Team ELO
1476.6
1476.6
Current Opponent ELO
1485.2
8.68
Current ELO Difference
-8.68
0.51
Expected score
0.49
47
History Matches
15
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
48.58
Overperformance
46.89
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
3.20
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
2.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
15
1.30
PPG
1.20
38.3%
Win rate
33.3%
14.9%
Draw rate
20.0%
46.8%
Loss rate
46.7%
55.3%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
36.2%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
21.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
7
1.64
PPG
2.14
50.0%
Win rate
71.4%
13.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
36.4%
Loss rate
28.6%
45.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
22.7%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
13.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
22
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.98
Goals for per game
1.20
59.6%
Scoring rate
66.7%
29.8%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.71
63.6%
Scoring rate
85.7%
22.7%
BTTS rate
71.4%
47
History Matches
15
0.98
Goals Mean
1.20
1.23
Goals Std
1.17
59.6%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
23.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
6.4%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.30
Goals against per game
1.67
59.6%
Conceding rate
93.3%
0.77
Goals against per game
1.43
50.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
47
History Matches
15
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.62
Conceded Std
0.87
29.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.3%
19.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
40.4%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
15
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
2.22
Goal Difference Std
1.63
8.38
Stability score
4.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
15
8
Lead Matches
3
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.78
14
Trailing Matches
7
14.3%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.31
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
181.2
Rest days
545.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.63
23
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.22
Portability PPG Std
—
0.44
Portability PPG Range
—
69.57
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO8.68
PPG0.10
GF-0.22
GA-0.37
PPG-0.51
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate33.8%
Failed-to-score rate7.1%
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate35.7%
Failed-to-score rate22.1%
History Matches32
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.24
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std0.75
Clean-sheet rate33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.62
History Matches32
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.60
Stability score3.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.04
Eligible Matches30
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate20.8%
Lead Points Retention0.14
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.29
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches30
First Half Goals For Mean-0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-364.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches17
Long Rest Points Per Match1.10
Current Team ELO8.68
Current Opponent ELO-8.68
Current ELO Difference17.36
Expected score0.02
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance1.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mercadal

L
Llosetense2–0Mercadal31 Oct · away
Pick: Llosetense 56% · hit
L
Mercadal1–5Porreres24 Oct · home
Pick: Porreres 38% · hit
W
Cardassar1–2Mercadal18 Oct · away
Pick: Mercadal 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

PE Sant Jordi

W
PE Sant Jordi3–0Alcúdia31 Oct · home
Pick: Alcúdia 37% · missed
D
Constància2–2PE Sant Jordi24 Oct · away
Pick: Constància 69% · missed
D
PE Sant Jordi0–0Inter Ibiza4 Oct · home
Pick: Inter Ibiza 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mercadal and PE Sant Jordi meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mercadal win 52.2%, draw 24.6%, PE Sant Jordi win 23.2%. The pick is Mercadal win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.4%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.