ScoreProb
First League North Macedonia Round 13 2026

Aresimi vs Shkëndija Haraçinë

Aresimi Home · Elo 1,530
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shkëndija Haraçinë Away · Elo 1,591
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Aresimi win
Aresimi winPick
40.3%
Draw
26.7%
Shkëndija Haraçinë win
33.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%

How much we know

Aresimi history60 matches
Shkëndija Haraçinë history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Aresimi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Shkëndija Haraçinë are rated 61 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,530. On rating alone Shkëndija Haraçinë would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Shkëndija Haraçinë score more

    1.55 goals a game over 60 matches for Aresimi, against 1.91 over 45 for Shkëndija Haraçinë.

  • Shkëndija Haraçinë concede fewer

    Aresimi concede 1.55 a game, Shkëndija Haraçinë 0.82.

  • Aresimi games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Aresimi matches, against 47% for Shkëndija Haraçinë. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Aresimi
Shkëndija Haraçinë@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.1
ELO
1591.1
60
ELO · Matches
45
1530.1
Current Team ELO
1591.1
1591.1
Current Opponent ELO
1530.1
-60.96
Current ELO Difference
60.96
0.41
Expected score
0.59
60
History Matches
45
0.01
Residual Mean
0.10
51.11
Overperformance
56.91
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
0.80
Goals for per game
0.40
3.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
2.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
45
1.55
PPG
2.02
45.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
35.0%
Loss rate
17.8%
73.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.1%
55.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
28.9%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
22
1.89
PPG
1.95
55.6%
Win rate
54.5%
22.2%
Draw rate
31.8%
22.2%
Loss rate
13.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
27
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.55
Goals for per game
1.91
76.7%
Scoring rate
82.2%
46.7%
BTTS rate
46.7%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.68
81.5%
Scoring rate
81.8%
48.1%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
25.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
60
History Matches
45
1.55
Goals Mean
1.91
1.42
Goals Std
1.72
76.7%
Scored 1+ rate
82.2%
35.0%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.7%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
0.82
65.0%
Conceding rate
57.8%
1.15
Goals against per game
0.82
63.0%
Conceding rate
54.5%
2.25
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
60
History Matches
45
1.55
Conceded Mean
0.82
1.66
Conceded Std
0.85
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
21.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.4%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
0.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.8%
37.0%
Clean-sheet rate
45.5%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
35.0%
Clean-sheet rate
42.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
45
0.95
Result entropy
0.86
2.42
Goal Difference Std
1.92
4.55
Stability score
13.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
39
17
Lead Matches
18
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.80
16
Trailing Matches
4
25.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
77.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
32
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.93
21
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
1.00
50.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.80
Portability PPG Std
0.48
2.36
Portability PPG Range
1.30
38.34
Portability Score
51.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-60.96
PPG-0.47
GF-0.36
GA0.73
PPG0.50
PPG-0.07
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate0.3%
History Matches15
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches15
Conceded Mean0.73
Conceded Std0.81
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate17.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.31
History Matches15
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.50
Stability score-9.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.09
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate4.2%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range1.06
Portability Score-12.81
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-60.96
Current Opponent ELO60.96
Current ELO Difference-121.9
Expected score-0.17
History Matches15
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-5.79
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Aresimi

L
Bashkimi Kumanovo2–1Aresimi2 Nov · away
Pick: Aresimi 45% · missed
L
Aresimi3–4Bregalnica Štip25 Oct · home
Pick: Bregalnica Štip 53% · hit
D
Aresimi1–1Tikveš19 Oct · home
Pick: Tikveš 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Shkëndija Haraçinë

W
Bashkimi Kumanovo0–2Shkëndija Haraçinë28 Oct · away
Pick: Bashkimi Kumanovo 44% · missed
L
Sileks2–0Shkëndija Haraçinë23 Oct · away
Pick: Sileks 64% · hit
L
Shkëndija Haraçinë0–2Struga17 Oct · home
Pick: Struga 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Aresimi and Shkëndija Haraçinë meet in First League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Aresimi win 40.3%, draw 26.7%, Shkëndija Haraçinë win 33.0%. The pick is Aresimi win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.7%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.