ScoreProb
First League North Macedonia Round 13 2026

Bashkimi Kumanovo vs Bregalnica Štip

Bashkimi Kumanovo Home · Elo 1,479
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bregalnica Štip Away · Elo 1,651
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bregalnica Štip win
Bashkimi Kumanovo win
15.2%
Draw
16.8%
Bregalnica Štip winPick
67.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.1%
No51.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%

How much we know

Bashkimi Kumanovo history61 matches
Bregalnica Štip history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.9%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Bregalnica Štip are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bregalnica Štip are rated 172 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,651 against 1,479. On rating alone Bregalnica Štip would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Bregalnica Štip score far more

    1.36 goals a game over 61 matches for Bashkimi Kumanovo, against 2.20 over 56 for Bregalnica Štip.

  • Bregalnica Štip concede fewer

    Bashkimi Kumanovo concede 1.46 a game, Bregalnica Štip 0.75.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    52% of Bashkimi Kumanovo matches, against 48% for Bregalnica Štip. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bashkimi Kumanovo
Bregalnica Štip@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1478.9
ELO
1650.5
61
ELO · Matches
56
1478.9
Current Team ELO
1650.5
1650.5
Current Opponent ELO
1478.9
-171.7
Current ELO Difference
171.7
0.27
Expected score
0.73
61
History Matches
56
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.13
48.74
Overperformance
59.36
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.80
0.00
Goals for per game
3.00
3.20
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
2.20
0.70
Goals for per game
3.00
2.80
Goals against per game
0.90
10.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.19
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
56
1.48
PPG
2.07
41.0%
Win rate
62.5%
24.6%
Draw rate
19.6%
34.4%
Loss rate
17.9%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
48.2%
29.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
29
1.52
PPG
2.10
41.9%
Win rate
65.5%
25.8%
Draw rate
13.8%
32.3%
Loss rate
20.7%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
61.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
35.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
31
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
2.20
67.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
47.5%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.48
Goals for per game
2.07
71.0%
Scoring rate
75.9%
54.8%
BTTS rate
34.5%
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
61
History Matches
56
1.36
Goals Mean
2.20
1.31
Goals Std
2.12
67.2%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
41.0%
Scored 2+ rate
53.6%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
37.5%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
2.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.46
Goals against per game
0.75
72.1%
Conceding rate
51.8%
1.55
Goals against per game
0.83
74.2%
Conceding rate
48.3%
3.75
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
61
History Matches
56
1.46
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.49
Conceded Std
0.93
36.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.1%
18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.6%
1.55
Venue Conceded Mean
0.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
48.2%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
51.7%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
48.2%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
51.7%
29.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.1%
27.9%
Clean-sheet rate
48.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
0.84
2.22
Goal Difference Std
2.38
1.91
Stability score
16.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
51
17
Lead Matches
27
88.2%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
1.00
22
Trailing Matches
9
31.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.29
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.10
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.75
Rest days
78.75
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.60
35
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.54
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.28
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.04
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-3.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.84
Portability PPG Std
0.59
2.27
Portability PPG Range
1.50
37.30
Portability Score
45.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-171.7
PPG-0.60
GF-0.84
GA0.71
PPG-1.50
PPG-0.59
PPG-1.80
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches5
Goals Mean-0.84
Goals Std-0.81
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.00
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.71
Conceded Std0.56
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Conceded 2+ rate20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate14.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.72
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.44
History Matches5
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-14.25
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches13
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate13.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.25
Portability PPG Range0.77
Portability Score-8.38
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.43
Current Team ELO-171.7
Current Opponent ELO171.7
Current ELO Difference-343.3
Expected score-0.46
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-10.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bashkimi Kumanovo

W
Bashkimi Kumanovo2–1Aresimi2 Nov · home
Pick: Aresimi 45% · missed
L
Bashkimi Kumanovo0–2Shkëndija Haraçinë28 Oct · home
Pick: Bashkimi Kumanovo 44% · missed
L
Tikveš3–1Bashkimi Kumanovo25 Oct · away
Pick: Tikveš 60% · hit
L
Bashkimi Kumanovo0–3Sileks18 Oct · home
Pick: Sileks 57% · hit
W
Bashkimi Kumanovo2–1Struga12 Oct · home
Pick: Struga 56% · missed

Bregalnica Štip

W
Aresimi3–4Bregalnica Štip25 Oct · away
Pick: Bregalnica Štip 53% · hit
L
Bregalnica Štip0–1Vardar Skopje17 Oct · home
Pick: Vardar Skopje 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Bashkimi Kumanovo and Bregalnica Štip meet in First League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Bashkimi Kumanovo win 15.2%, draw 16.8%, Bregalnica Štip win 67.9%. The pick is Bregalnica Štip win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.9%. Both teams to score: 48.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.