ScoreProb
2. Lig Türkiye 2. Lig White Group - 10 2026

Arnavutköy Belediyespor vs Menemen FK

Arnavutköy Belediyespor Home · Elo 1,480
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Menemen FK Away · Elo 1,514
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Menemen FK win
Arnavutköy Belediyespor win
36.3%
Draw
23.3%
Menemen FK winPick
40.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.3%
Under 2.542.7%

How much we know

Arnavutköy Belediyespor history50 matches
Menemen FK history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Menemen FK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Menemen FK are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,480. On rating alone Menemen FK would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Menemen FK score more

    1.28 goals a game over 50 matches for Arnavutköy Belediyespor, against 1.63 over 49 for Menemen FK.

  • Defences are close

    Arnavutköy Belediyespor concede 1.44 a game, Menemen FK 1.57.

  • Menemen FK games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Arnavutköy Belediyespor matches, against 69% for Menemen FK. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
Menemen FK
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.7
ELO
1514.0
50
ELO · Matches
49
1479.7
Current Team ELO
1514.0
1514.0
Current Opponent ELO
1479.7
-34.32
Current ELO Difference
34.32
0.45
Expected score
0.55
50
History Matches
49
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
48.94
Overperformance
51.09
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
0.40
Goals against per game
3.00
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
0.90
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
49
1.18
PPG
1.49
32.0%
Win rate
42.9%
22.0%
Draw rate
20.4%
46.0%
Loss rate
36.7%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.7%
54.0%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.8%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
24
1.23
PPG
1.08
34.6%
Win rate
29.2%
19.2%
Draw rate
20.8%
46.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
26
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.28
Goals for per game
1.63
68.0%
Scoring rate
75.5%
44.0%
BTTS rate
61.2%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.38
69.2%
Scoring rate
62.5%
46.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
50
History Matches
49
1.28
Goals Mean
1.63
1.25
Goals Std
1.41
68.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
49.0%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.4%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.44
Goals against per game
1.57
66.0%
Conceding rate
79.6%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.79
65.4%
Conceding rate
79.2%
50
History Matches
49
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.34
Conceded Std
1.23
42.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
30.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.5%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
34.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
49
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
1.91
Goal Difference Std
1.96
3.98
Stability score
3.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
13
Lead Matches
16
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.88
21
Trailing Matches
18
14.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
197.0
Rest days
197.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
12
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.30
Portability PPG Range
0.33
76.74
Portability Score
75.04
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-34.32
PPG-0.31
GF-0.35
GA-0.13
PPG0.15
PPG1.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate5.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score0.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate3.4%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.03
Portability Score1.71
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.38
Current Team ELO-34.32
Current Opponent ELO34.32
Current ELO Difference-68.63
Expected score-0.10
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Arnavutköy Belediyespor

L
Erbaaspor2–0Arnavutköy Belediyespor1 Nov · away
Pick: Erbaaspor 48% · hit
L
Balıkesirspor1–0Arnavutköy Belediyespor28 Oct · away
Pick: Balıkesirspor 49% · hit
L
Arnavutköy Belediyespor0–2Şanlıurfaspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 44% · hit
L
Elazığspor3–0Arnavutköy Belediyespor17 Oct · away
Pick: Elazığspor 67% · hit
L
Kastamonuspor2–1Arnavutköy Belediyespor4 Oct · away
Pick: Kastamonuspor 44% · hit

Menemen FK

W
Menemen FK3–0Hatayspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Menemen FK 47% · hit
D
Çorluspor 19471–1Menemen FK24 Oct · away
Pick: Çorluspor 1947 63% · missed
L
Menemen FK0–1Güzide Gebzespor17 Oct · home
Pick: Güzide Gebzespor 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Arnavutköy Belediyespor and Menemen FK meet in 2. Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Arnavutköy Belediyespor win 36.3%, draw 23.3%, Menemen FK win 40.4%. The pick is Menemen FK win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.3%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.