ScoreProb
Carioca - 2 Brazil Round 11 2026

Artsul vs Goytacaz

Artsul Home · Elo 1,482
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Goytacaz Away · Elo 1,541
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Artsul win
Artsul winPick
37.2%
Draw
29.5%
Goytacaz win
33.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.2%
Under 2.559.8%

How much we know

Artsul history12 matches
Goytacaz history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Artsul are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Goytacaz are rated 59 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,482. On rating alone Goytacaz would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Goytacaz score far more

    0.92 goals a game over 12 matches for Artsul, against 1.55 over 11 for Goytacaz.

  • Defences are close

    Artsul concede 1.00 a game, Goytacaz 1.00.

  • Goytacaz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    33% of Artsul matches, against 55% for Goytacaz. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 7 Dec 2025 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Artsul
Goytacaz@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.3
ELO
1540.8
12
ELO · Matches
11
1482.3
Current Team ELO
1540.8
1540.8
Current Opponent ELO
1482.3
-58.54
Current ELO Difference
58.54
0.42
Expected score
0.58
12
History Matches
11
-0.07
Residual Mean
0.19
47.24
Overperformance
56.90
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
2.10
1.10
Goals for per game
1.70
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.22
Overall performance9 signals
90
12
Matches
11
1.08
PPG
1.91
25.0%
Win rate
54.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
27.3%
41.7%
Loss rate
18.2%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
5
1.33
PPG
1.40
33.3%
Win rate
40.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
40.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
6
History Matches
5
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.92
Goals for per game
1.55
58.3%
Scoring rate
72.7%
41.7%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
83.3%
BTTS rate
40.0%
12
History Matches
11
0.92
Goals Mean
1.55
0.95
Goals Std
1.30
58.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
8.3%
Scored 3+ rate
27.3%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.20
83.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
12
History Matches
11
1.00
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.82
Conceded Std
0.85
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
18.2%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.1%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
12
History Matches
11
0.98
Result entropy
0.91
1.19
Goal Difference Std
1.62
1.92
Stability score
9.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
12
Eligible Matches
10
3
Lead Matches
4
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
1.00
3
Trailing Matches
1
33.3%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
12
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.10
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
364.0
Rest days
335.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
7
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.88
3
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
12
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-58.54
PPG-0.83
GF-0.63
GA0.00
PPG-0.07
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate14.4%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.63
Goals Std-0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Conceded 2+ rate15.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches1
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.43
Stability score-7.52
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate33.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days29.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.88
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Current Team ELO-58.54
Current Opponent ELO58.54
Current ELO Difference-117.1
Expected score-0.17
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.27
Overperformance-9.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Artsul

W
Niteroiense0–2Artsul31 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 40% · missed
W
Artsul1–0São Cristóvão RJ24 Oct · home
Pick: Artsul 35% · hit
L
Duque de Caxias2–1Artsul21 Oct · away
Pick: Duque de Caxias 46% · hit
D
Artsul1–1Nova Cidade16 Oct · home
Pick: Artsul 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Goytacaz

W
Goytacaz2–0Campo Grande31 Oct · home
Pick: Goytacaz 39% · hit
D
Audax Rio1–1Goytacaz24 Oct · away
Pick: Audax Rio 47% · missed
W
Carapebus0–2Goytacaz21 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
W
Goytacaz2–0Niteroiense17 Oct · home
Pick: Goytacaz 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Artsul and Goytacaz meet in Carioca - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Artsul win 37.2%, draw 29.5%, Goytacaz win 33.3%. The pick is Artsul win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.2%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.