ScoreProb
Carioca - 2 Brazil Round 11 2026

Campo Grande vs Audax Rio

Campo Grande Home · Elo 1,501
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Audax Rio Away · Elo 1,443
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Campo Grande win
Campo Grande winPick
38.5%
Draw
29.4%
Audax Rio win
32.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes40.8%
No59.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.4%
Under 2.560.6%

How much we know

Campo Grande history14 matches
Audax Rio history22 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Campo Grande are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Campo Grande are rated 58 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,443. On rating alone Campo Grande would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.79 goals a game over 14 matches for Campo Grande, against 0.86 over 22 for Audax Rio.

  • Campo Grande concede fewer

    Campo Grande concede 0.86 a game, Audax Rio 1.41.

  • Audax Rio games more often go over 2.5 goals

    7% of Campo Grande matches, against 50% for Audax Rio. The model puts this match at 39% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 4 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Campo Grande
Audax Rio@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1500.6
ELO
1443.0
14
ELO · Matches
22
1500.6
Current Team ELO
1443.0
1443.0
Current Opponent ELO
1500.6
57.68
Current ELO Difference
-57.68
0.58
Expected score
0.42
14
History Matches
22
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.12
49.53
Overperformance
43.71
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
0.80
Goals for per game
0.90
0.70
Goals against per game
1.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
0.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
14
Matches
22
1.29
PPG
0.95
28.6%
Win rate
27.3%
42.9%
Draw rate
13.6%
28.6%
Loss rate
59.1%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
59.1%
7.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
10
1.17
PPG
0.70
16.7%
Win rate
20.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
10.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
70.0%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
30.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
30.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
0.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
6
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.79
Goals for per game
0.86
64.3%
Scoring rate
59.1%
42.9%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.50
83.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
30.0%
14
History Matches
22
0.79
Goals Mean
0.86
0.67
Goals Std
0.87
64.3%
Scored 1+ rate
59.1%
14.3%
Scored 2+ rate
22.7%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
4.5%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.86
Goals against per game
1.41
71.4%
Conceding rate
77.3%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.20
83.3%
Conceding rate
70.0%
14
History Matches
22
0.86
Conceded Mean
1.41
0.64
Conceded Std
1.03
14.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
14
History Matches
22
0.98
Result entropy
0.85
1.10
Goal Difference Std
1.27
1.79
Stability score
14.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
22
4
Lead Matches
5
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
2
Trailing Matches
10
50.0%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
364.0
Rest days
126.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
7
Normal Rest History Matches
11
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.91
5
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.36
Portability PPG Range
0.20
73.33
Portability Score
83.33
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
14
Clean History Matches
22
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO57.68
PPG0.33
GF-0.08
GA-0.55
PPG0.47
PPG0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.08
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate5.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.34
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.55
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.57
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-12.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.73
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate40.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.16
Portability Score-10.00
Rest days238.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO57.68
Current Opponent ELO-57.68
Current ELO Difference115.4
Expected score0.16
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance5.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Campo Grande

L
Goytacaz2–0Campo Grande31 Oct · away
Pick: Goytacaz 39% · hit
W
Campo Grande2–0Niteroiense24 Oct · home
Pick: Campo Grande 42% · hit
D
São Cristóvão RJ0–0Campo Grande21 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 37% · hit
L
Campo Grande0–3Duque de Caxias17 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Audax Rio

L
Carapebus2–1Audax Rio31 Oct · away
Pick: Audax Rio 38% · missed
D
Audax Rio1–1Goytacaz24 Oct · home
Pick: Audax Rio 47% · missed
L
Niteroiense2–1Audax Rio21 Oct · away
Pick: Niteroiense 38% · hit
W
Audax Rio1–0São Cristóvão RJ17 Oct · home
Pick: Audax Rio 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Campo Grande and Audax Rio meet in Carioca - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Campo Grande win 38.5%, draw 29.4%, Audax Rio win 32.1%. The pick is Campo Grande win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.4%. Both teams to score: 40.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.