ScoreProb
2. Division Cyprus Round 7 2026

ASIL Lysi vs Spartakos Kitiou

ASIL Lysi Home · Elo 1,434
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Spartakos Kitiou Away · Elo 1,474
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Spartakos Kitiou win
ASIL Lysi win
35.5%
Draw
22.0%
Spartakos Kitiou winPick
42.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.4%
Under 2.542.6%

How much we know

ASIL Lysi history43 matches
Spartakos Kitiou history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Spartakos Kitiou are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Spartakos Kitiou are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,474 against 1,434. On rating alone Spartakos Kitiou would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Spartakos Kitiou score more

    1.16 goals a game over 43 matches for ASIL Lysi, against 1.53 over 43 for Spartakos Kitiou.

  • Spartakos Kitiou concede fewer

    ASIL Lysi concede 1.70 a game, Spartakos Kitiou 1.49.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of ASIL Lysi matches, against 58% for Spartakos Kitiou. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ASIL Lysi
Spartakos Kitiou
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1433.8
ELO
1474.0
43
ELO · Matches
43
1433.8
Current Team ELO
1474.0
1474.0
Current Opponent ELO
1433.8
-40.18
Current ELO Difference
40.18
0.44
Expected score
0.56
43
History Matches
43
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.03
45.27
Overperformance
47.77
-0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
3.40
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.80
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.99
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.80
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
43
1.14
PPG
1.30
32.6%
Win rate
34.9%
16.3%
Draw rate
25.6%
51.2%
Loss rate
39.5%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.0%
55.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
1.69
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
22
1.30
PPG
1.23
39.1%
Win rate
31.8%
13.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
47.8%
Loss rate
40.9%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
23
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.16
Goals for per game
1.53
72.1%
Scoring rate
69.8%
58.1%
BTTS rate
48.8%
1.22
Goals for per game
1.45
78.3%
Scoring rate
68.2%
56.5%
BTTS rate
54.5%
43
History Matches
43
1.16
Goals Mean
1.53
1.03
Goals Std
1.35
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
69.8%
32.6%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
7.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.3%
1.22
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.70
Goals against per game
1.49
81.4%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.39
Goals against per game
1.59
73.9%
Conceding rate
77.3%
43
History Matches
43
1.70
Conceded Mean
1.49
1.46
Conceded Std
1.26
41.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.2%
27.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.6%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
30.2%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.8%
18.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
43
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.69
Goal Difference Std
2.11
8.64
Stability score
1.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
43
12
Lead Matches
15
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.64
Lead Points Retention
0.84
12
Trailing Matches
7
25.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.91
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.9
Rest days
195.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
18
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.22
Portability PPG Std
0.02
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.04
69.88
Portability Score
96.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-40.18
PPG-0.16
GF-0.37
GA0.21
PPG0.08
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate2.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.11
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate9.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.79
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score7.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.30
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.22
Lead Points Retention-0.21
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.04
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.39
Portability Score-26.54
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.03
Current Team ELO-40.18
Current Opponent ELO40.18
Current ELO Difference-80.36
Expected score-0.12
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ASIL Lysi

D
Digenis Morphou0–0ASIL Lysi1 Nov · away
Pick: Digenis Morphou 38% · missed
D
ASIL Lysi1–1Doxa24 Oct · home
Pick: Doxa 40% · missed
L
Enosis2–1ASIL Lysi16 Oct · away
Pick: Enosis 43% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Spartakos Kitiou

D
Spartakos Kitiou0–0Ayia Napa31 Oct · home
Pick: Spartakos Kitiou 40% · missed
L
Halkanoras2–1Spartakos Kitiou24 Oct · away
Pick: Spartakos Kitiou 39% · missed
L
Spartakos Kitiou2–3Anagennisi Deryneia17 Oct · home
Pick: Spartakos Kitiou 44% · missed
L
Spartakos Kitiou0–2Krasava Ypsonas14 Oct · home
Pick: Krasava Ypsonas 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ASIL Lysi and Spartakos Kitiou meet in 2. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: ASIL Lysi win 35.5%, draw 22.0%, Spartakos Kitiou win 42.5%. The pick is Spartakos Kitiou win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.4%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.