ScoreProb
2. Division Cyprus Round 7 2026

Halkanoras vs Ermis

Halkanoras Home · Elo 1,518
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ermis Away · Elo 1,583
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Halkanoras win
Halkanoras winPick
41.5%
Draw
28.1%
Ermis win
30.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.3%
No48.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%

How much we know

Halkanoras history42 matches
Ermis history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Halkanoras are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ermis are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,583 against 1,518. On rating alone Ermis would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.71 goals a game over 42 matches for Halkanoras, against 1.56 over 39 for Ermis.

  • Ermis concede fewer

    Halkanoras concede 1.29 a game, Ermis 0.77.

  • Halkanoras games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Halkanoras matches, against 36% for Ermis. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Halkanoras
Ermis
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.3
ELO
1582.7
42
ELO · Matches
39
1518.3
Current Team ELO
1582.7
1582.7
Current Opponent ELO
1518.3
-64.33
Current ELO Difference
64.33
0.41
Expected score
0.59
42
History Matches
39
0.02
Residual Mean
0.11
51.41
Overperformance
57.44
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
0.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.90
1.50
Goals for per game
1.60
0.40
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
39
1.55
PPG
1.79
45.2%
Win rate
51.3%
19.0%
Draw rate
25.6%
35.7%
Loss rate
23.1%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
59.5%
Over 2.5 rate
35.9%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
20.5%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
18
1.86
PPG
1.89
57.1%
Win rate
55.6%
14.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
28.6%
Loss rate
22.2%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
38.9%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
27.8%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
21
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.71
Goals for per game
1.56
78.6%
Scoring rate
74.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
30.8%
2.05
Goals for per game
1.72
85.7%
Scoring rate
72.2%
61.9%
BTTS rate
27.8%
42
History Matches
39
1.71
Goals Mean
1.56
1.53
Goals Std
1.57
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
74.4%
45.2%
Scored 2+ rate
41.0%
26.2%
Scored 3+ rate
23.1%
2.05
Venue Goals Mean
1.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
0.77
71.4%
Conceding rate
48.7%
1.19
Goals against per game
0.83
71.4%
Conceding rate
50.0%
42
History Matches
39
1.29
Conceded Mean
0.77
1.08
Conceded Std
0.92
40.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
23.1%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.1%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
0.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
51.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
51.3%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
27.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
51.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
39
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
1.94
Goal Difference Std
2.03
5.12
Stability score
6.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
33
12
Lead Matches
11
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.85
15
Trailing Matches
8
40.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.9
Rest days
196.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.96
14
Long Rest History Matches
14
2.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.11
Portability PPG Range
0.98
89.69
Portability Score
50.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-64.33
PPG-0.25
GF0.15
GA0.52
PPG-0.03
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std-0.03
Scored 1+ rate4.2%
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.52
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate17.4%
Conceded 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-1.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate1.5%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate15.0%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.43
Portability PPG Range-0.87
Portability Score39.20
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.50
Current Team ELO-64.33
Current Opponent ELO64.33
Current ELO Difference-128.7
Expected score-0.18
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-6.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Halkanoras

L
Ethnikos Achna2–0Halkanoras31 Oct · away
Pick: Ethnikos Achna 48% · hit
L
Apoel Nicosia5–2Halkanoras28 Oct · away
Pick: Apoel Nicosia 61% · hit
W
Halkanoras2–1Spartakos Kitiou24 Oct · home
Pick: Spartakos Kitiou 39% · missed
D
Digenis Morphou1–1Halkanoras18 Oct · away
Pick: Halkanoras 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ermis

L
Karmiotissa2–0Ermis3 Nov · away
Pick: Karmiotissa 46% · hit
L
Ermis1–2Anagennisi Deryneia30 Oct · home
Pick: Ermis 38% · missed
L
APEA2–0Ermis24 Oct · away
Pick: APEA 41% · hit
W
Ermis2–0MEAP Nisou17 Oct · home
Pick: Ermis 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Halkanoras and Ermis meet in 2. Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Halkanoras win 41.5%, draw 28.1%, Ermis win 30.3%. The pick is Halkanoras win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.7%. Both teams to score: 51.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.