ScoreProb
Serie D - Girone F Italy Group F - 11 2026

Atletico Ascoli vs Teramo

Atletico Ascoli Home · Elo 1,538
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Teramo Away · Elo 1,644
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Teramo win
Atletico Ascoli win
32.3%
Draw
33.8%
Teramo winPick
34.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.8%
Under 2.546.2%

How much we know

Atletico Ascoli history52 matches
Teramo history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Teramo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Teramo are rated 107 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,644 against 1,538. On rating alone Teramo would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Teramo score more

    1.35 goals a game over 52 matches for Atletico Ascoli, against 1.88 over 52 for Teramo.

  • Defences are close

    Atletico Ascoli concede 1.00 a game, Teramo 0.92.

  • Teramo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Atletico Ascoli matches, against 58% for Teramo. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico Ascoli
Teramo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.7
ELO
1644.4
52
ELO · Matches
52
1537.7
Current Team ELO
1644.4
1644.4
Current Opponent ELO
1537.7
-106.7
Current ELO Difference
106.7
0.35
Expected score
0.65
52
History Matches
52
0.03
Residual Mean
0.14
52.34
Overperformance
60.14
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.90
1.00
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
0.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
52
1.40
PPG
2.06
32.7%
Win rate
59.6%
42.3%
Draw rate
26.9%
25.0%
Loss rate
13.5%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
44.2%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.7%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.52
PPG
2.08
36.0%
Win rate
60.0%
44.0%
Draw rate
28.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
12.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.32
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.35
Goals for per game
1.88
75.0%
Scoring rate
90.4%
55.8%
BTTS rate
63.5%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.60
76.0%
Scoring rate
84.0%
56.0%
BTTS rate
52.0%
52
History Matches
52
1.35
Goals Mean
1.88
1.21
Goals Std
1.19
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
90.4%
36.5%
Scored 2+ rate
57.7%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
26.9%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
0.92
65.4%
Conceding rate
65.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.76
64.0%
Conceding rate
56.0%
52
History Matches
52
1.00
Conceded Mean
0.92
0.90
Conceded Std
0.85
28.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.2%
5.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.6%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
9.6%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
44.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
52
0.98
Result entropy
0.85
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.40
2.06
Stability score
15.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
52
18
Lead Matches
20
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.90
11
Trailing Matches
8
36.4%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.40
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.15
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
91.90
Rest days
175.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
41
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.03
8
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.57
Portability PPG Range
0.58
63.64
Portability Score
63.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-106.7
PPG-0.65
GF-0.54
GA0.08
PPG-0.56
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate15.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate8.0%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.54
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.31
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Conceded 2+ rate7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches0
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-13.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate-0.25
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.01
Portability Score0.32
Rest days-83.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.36
Current Team ELO-106.7
Current Opponent ELO106.7
Current ELO Difference-213.4
Expected score-0.30
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-7.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.25

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atletico Ascoli

L
Ancona1–0Atletico Ascoli1 Nov · away
Pick: Ancona 47% · hit
D
Termoli Calcio0–0Atletico Ascoli25 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Ascoli 40% · missed
W
Atletico Ascoli5–1Lanciano FC18 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Ascoli 69% · hit
L
Atletico Ascoli0–1Fossombrone4 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Ascoli 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Teramo

W
Teramo2–0Lanciano FC1 Nov · home
Pick: Teramo 73% · hit
L
Teramo0–2Latte Dolce28 Oct · home
Pick: Teramo 62% · missed
W
Fossombrone2–4Teramo25 Oct · away
Pick: Teramo 35% · hit
W
Teramo1–0Termoli Calcio18 Oct · home
Pick: Teramo 54% · hit
W
Unipomezia3–4Teramo7 Oct · away
Pick: Teramo 42% · hit

About this match

Atletico Ascoli and Teramo meet in Serie D - Girone F on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Atletico Ascoli win 32.3%, draw 33.8%, Teramo win 34.0%. The pick is Teramo win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.8%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.