Fossombrone vs Santegidiese
Fossombrone
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Santegidiese
Match result probability Model pick: Fossombrone win
Fossombrone winPick
59.6%
Draw
25.7%
Santegidiese win
14.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.5%
No52.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.545.1%
Under 2.554.9%
How much we know
Fossombrone history52 matches
Santegidiese history0 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Fossombrone
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.6%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Fossombrone are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,491 against 1,500. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Fossombrone
Santegidiese
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1490.6
ELO
1500.0
52
ELO · Matches
0
1490.6
Current Team ELO
1500.0
1500.0
Current Opponent ELO
1490.6
-9.39
Current ELO Difference
9.39
0.49
Expected score
0.51
52
History Matches
0
-0.01
Residual Mean
—
49.33
Overperformance
—
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
—
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
0
0.80
PPG
—
1.00
Goals for per game
—
1.80
Goals against per game
—
20.0%
Win rate
—
10
Matches
0
1.20
PPG
—
0.90
Goals for per game
—
1.40
Goals against per game
—
30.0%
Win rate
—
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
—
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
—
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
—
1.63
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
52
Matches
0
1.31
PPG
—
30.8%
Win rate
—
38.5%
Draw rate
—
30.8%
Loss rate
—
57.7%
Over 1.5 rate
—
36.5%
Over 2.5 rate
—
11.5%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.29
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
0
1.54
PPG
—
38.5%
Win rate
—
38.5%
Draw rate
—
23.1%
Loss rate
—
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
30.8%
Over 2.5 rate
—
15.4%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
26
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.90
Goals for per game
—
61.5%
Scoring rate
—
44.2%
BTTS rate
—
1.08
Goals for per game
—
65.4%
Scoring rate
—
42.3%
BTTS rate
—
52
History Matches
0
0.90
Goals Mean
—
0.93
Goals Std
—
61.5%
Scored 1+ rate
—
21.2%
Scored 2+ rate
—
5.8%
Scored 3+ rate
—
1.08
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.00
Goals against per game
—
63.5%
Conceding rate
—
0.73
Goals against per game
—
53.8%
Conceding rate
—
52
History Matches
0
1.00
Conceded Mean
—
0.96
Conceded Std
—
26.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
—
9.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
—
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
—
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
—
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
—
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
—
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
—
38.5%
Failed-to-score rate
—
46.2%
Clean-sheet rate
—
34.6%
Failed-to-score rate
—
36.5%
Clean-sheet rate
—
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
52
History Matches
0
0.99
Result entropy
—
1.29
Goal Difference Std
—
0.53
Stability score
—
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
52
Eligible Matches
0
13
Lead Matches
0
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.79
Lead Points Retention
—
12
Trailing Matches
0
8.3%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
98.79
Rest days
—
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
39
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
10
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
0
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.03
Portability PPG Std
—
0.06
Portability PPG Range
—
94.07
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
52
Clean History Matches
0
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-9.39
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches52
History Matches26
History Matches52
History Matches52
History Matches52
Eligible Matches52
Lead Matches13
Trailing Matches12
Halftime Coverage Matches52
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches39
Long Rest History Matches10
Current Team ELO-9.39
Current Opponent ELO9.39
Current ELO Difference-18.78
Expected score-0.03
History Matches52
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Fossombrone
D
Pietralunga0–0Fossombrone1 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 37% · hit L
Fossombrone2–4Teramo25 Oct · home
Pick: Teramo 35% · hit W
Ancona2–3Fossombrone18 Oct · away
Pick: Ancona 54% · missed W
Atletico Ascoli0–1Fossombrone4 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Ascoli 37% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Santegidiese
D
Santegidiese0–0Termoli Calcio1 Nov · home
Pick: Draw 41% · hit L
Santegidiese0–2Vigor Senigallia18 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed L
Santegidiese1–3Real Giulianova4 Oct · home
Pick: Real Giulianova 35% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Fossombrone and Santegidiese meet in Serie D - Girone F on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Fossombrone win 59.6%, draw 25.7%, Santegidiese win 14.7%. The pick is Fossombrone win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.1%. Both teams to score: 47.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.