Atletico Madrid W vs FC Levante Badalona
Atletico Madrid W
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Levante Badalona
Match result probability Model pick: Atletico Madrid W win
Atletico Madrid W winPick
61.0%
Draw
19.7%
FC Levante Badalona win
19.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.6%
No46.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.3%
Under 2.540.7%
How much we know
Atletico Madrid W history55 matches
FC Levante Badalona history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Atletico Madrid W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
- Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre9 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Atletico Madrid W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Atletico Madrid W are rated 82 Elo points higher
Elo 1,557 against 1,475. On rating alone Atletico Madrid W would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Atletico Madrid W score far more
1.84 goals a game over 55 matches for Atletico Madrid W, against 0.84 over 44 for FC Levante Badalona.
-
Atletico Madrid W concede fewer
Atletico Madrid W concede 1.22 a game, FC Levante Badalona 1.57.
-
Atletico Madrid W games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Atletico Madrid W matches, against 36% for FC Levante Badalona. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 31 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico Madrid W
FC Levante Badalona
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1556.9
ELO
1474.5
55
ELO · Matches
44
1556.9
Current Team ELO
1474.5
1474.5
Current Opponent ELO
1556.9
82.31
Current ELO Difference
-82.31
0.62
Expected score
0.38
55
History Matches
44
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
53.60
Overperformance
48.13
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
2.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
2.50
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.63
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.80
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.86
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
44
1.62
PPG
1.11
43.6%
Win rate
27.3%
30.9%
Draw rate
29.5%
25.5%
Loss rate
43.2%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
65.9%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
36.4%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
2.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
22
1.70
PPG
1.23
44.4%
Win rate
31.8%
37.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
18.5%
Loss rate
40.9%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
68.2%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
27
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.84
Goals for per game
0.84
74.5%
Scoring rate
50.0%
38.2%
BTTS rate
36.4%
1.89
Goals for per game
1.00
77.8%
Scoring rate
54.5%
37.0%
BTTS rate
36.4%
55
History Matches
44
1.84
Goals Mean
0.84
1.68
Goals Std
1.09
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
50.0%
49.1%
Scored 2+ rate
22.7%
25.5%
Scored 3+ rate
6.8%
1.89
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.22
Goals against per game
1.57
56.4%
Conceding rate
70.5%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.59
51.9%
Conceding rate
68.2%
55
History Matches
44
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.55
Conceded Std
1.54
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
48.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.8%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
43.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
44
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
2.64
Goal Difference Std
1.93
2.33
Stability score
1.95
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
44
21
Lead Matches
11
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.88
17
Trailing Matches
15
29.4%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
162.3
Rest days
162.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
19
Long Rest History Matches
25
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.29
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.59
50.57
Portability Score
63.06
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO82.31
PPG0.50
GF1.00
GA-0.35
PPG0.48
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches11
Goals Mean1.00
Goals Std0.60
Scored 1+ rate24.5%
Scored 2+ rate26.4%
Scored 3+ rate18.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.89
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.97
History Matches11
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.70
Stability score0.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.74
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate16.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.59
Portability Score-12.50
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.59
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match1.01
Current Team ELO82.31
Current Opponent ELO-82.31
Current ELO Difference164.6
Expected score0.23
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Atletico Madrid W
D
Granada1–1Atletico Madrid W31 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Madrid W 45% · missed W
Atletico Madrid W4–0Valencia W23 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Madrid W 69% · hit W
Atletico Madrid W4–0Madrid CFF W18 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Madrid W 69% · hit L
Real Madrid W3–2Atletico Madrid W30 Aug · away
Pick: Real Madrid W 64% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
FC Levante Badalona
L
FC Levante Badalona0–4Barcelona W1 Nov · home
Pick: Barcelona W 60% · hit L
Edf Logrono W1–0FC Levante Badalona24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Levante Badalona 48% · missed L
FC Levante Badalona0–4Granad. Tenerife W17 Oct · home
Pick: Granad. Tenerife W 46% · hit L
Athletic Club W3–1FC Levante Badalona30 Aug · away
Pick: Athletic Club W 41% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Atletico Madrid W and FC Levante Badalona meet in Primera División Femenina on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Centro Deportivo Alcala de Henares, Madrid. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Atletico Madrid W win 61.0%, draw 19.7%, FC Levante Badalona win 19.3%. The pick is Atletico Madrid W win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.3%. Both teams to score: 53.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.