ScoreProb
Primera División Femenina Spain Round 10 2026

Deportivo de La Coruña W vs Valencia W

Deportivo de La Coruña W Home · Elo 1,446
Mon 9 Nov
UTC
Not started
Valencia W Away · Elo 1,499
Estadio Municipal de Riazor Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo de La Coruña W win
Deportivo de La Coruña W winPick
57.2%
Draw
18.0%
Valencia W win
24.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%

How much we know

Deportivo de La Coruña W history45 matches
Valencia W history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    3 Nov · 08:36 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 08:08 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    9 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Deportivo de La Coruña W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Valencia W are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,499 against 1,446. On rating alone Valencia W would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Valencia W score more

    1.13 goals a game over 45 matches for Deportivo de La Coruña W, against 1.36 over 14 for Valencia W.

  • Valencia W concede fewer

    Deportivo de La Coruña W concede 1.69 a game, Valencia W 1.50.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Deportivo de La Coruña W matches, against 50% for Valencia W. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 31 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Deportivo de La Coruña W
Valencia W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1446.0
ELO
1498.7
45
ELO · Matches
14
1446.0
Current Team ELO
1498.7
1498.7
Current Opponent ELO
1446.0
-52.67
Current ELO Difference
52.67
0.42
Expected score
0.58
45
History Matches
14
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
45.77
Overperformance
49.28
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
14
1.02
PPG
1.21
24.4%
Win rate
28.6%
28.9%
Draw rate
35.7%
46.7%
Loss rate
35.7%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
51.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
8
1.14
PPG
1.00
22.7%
Win rate
25.0%
45.5%
Draw rate
25.0%
31.8%
Loss rate
50.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
22
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.13
Goals for per game
1.36
64.4%
Scoring rate
92.9%
51.1%
BTTS rate
71.4%
1.09
Goals for per game
1.00
72.7%
Scoring rate
87.5%
59.1%
BTTS rate
62.5%
45
History Matches
14
1.13
Goals Mean
1.36
1.22
Goals Std
0.89
64.4%
Scored 1+ rate
92.9%
31.1%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
8.9%
Scored 3+ rate
7.1%
1.09
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.69
Goals against per game
1.50
80.0%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.75
72.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
45
History Matches
14
1.69
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.53
Conceded Std
1.18
46.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.4%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
35.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
14
0.96
Result entropy
1.00
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.73
3.63
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
14
13
Lead Matches
6
46.2%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.59
Lead Points Retention
0.67
11
Trailing Matches
5
27.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
162.4
Rest days
540.4
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
19
Normal Rest History Matches
6
0.95
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
25
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.02
Portability PPG Std
—
0.03
Portability PPG Range
—
96.77
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-52.67
PPG-0.19
GF-0.22
GA0.19
PPG0.14
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches31
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate28.4%
History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate2.3%
Failed-to-score rate14.8%
History Matches31
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.28
Scored 2+ rate2.5%
Scored 3+ rate1.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches31
Conceded Mean0.19
Conceded Std0.35
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches31
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score3.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches31
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches31
First Half Goals For Mean-0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-378.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Long Rest History Matches18
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO-52.67
Current Opponent ELO52.67
Current ELO Difference-105.3
Expected score-0.15
History Matches31
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Deportivo de La Coruña W

L
Madrid CFF W2–1Deportivo de La Coruña W31 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo de La Coruña W 41% · missed
W
Deportivo de La Coruña W2–1Deportivo Alavés W25 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo de La Coruña W 65% · hit
W
Eibar W2–3Deportivo de La Coruña W18 Oct · away
Pick: Eibar W 36% · missed
L
Deportivo de La Coruña W0–1Sevilla W29 Aug · home
Pick: Deportivo de La Coruña W 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Valencia W

W
Valencia W2–1Eibar W31 Oct · home
Pick: Valencia W 41% · hit
L
Atletico Madrid W4–0Valencia W23 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Madrid W 69% · hit
L
Athletic Club W1–0Valencia W17 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Club W 53% · hit
L
Valencia W0–1Real Sociedad W4 Oct · home
Pick: Real Sociedad W 47% · hit
L
Deportivo Alavés W2–0Valencia W30 Aug · away
Pick: Valencia W 38% · missed

About this match

Deportivo de La Coruña W and Valencia W meet in Primera División Femenina on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal de Riazor. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 08:36 UTC: Deportivo de La Coruña W win 57.2%, draw 18.0%, Valencia W win 24.8%. The pick is Deportivo de La Coruña W win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.1%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.