ScoreProb
Copa Do Brasil Brazil Semi-finals 2026

Atletico-MG vs Gremio

Atletico-MG Home · Elo 1,603
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gremio Away · Elo 1,549
MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atletico-MG win
Atletico-MG winPick
36.6%
Draw
32.1%
Gremio win
31.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.5%
No52.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.542.8%
Under 2.557.2%

How much we know

Atletico-MG history95 matches
Gremio history91 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Atletico-MG are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atletico-MG are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,549. On rating alone Atletico-MG would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.28 goals a game over 95 matches for Atletico-MG, against 1.41 over 91 for Gremio.

  • Atletico-MG concede fewer

    Atletico-MG concede 0.92 a game, Gremio 1.12.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    38% of Atletico-MG matches, against 42% for Gremio. The model puts this match at 43% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atletico-MG
Gremio@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1603.4
ELO
1549.2
95
ELO · Matches
91
1603.4
Current Team ELO
1549.2
1549.2
Current Opponent ELO
1603.4
54.24
Current ELO Difference
-54.24
0.58
Expected score
0.42
95
History Matches
91
0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
54.19
Overperformance
52.14
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.30
Goals for per game
0.90
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
95
Matches
91
1.59
PPG
1.45
42.1%
Win rate
39.6%
32.6%
Draw rate
26.4%
25.3%
Loss rate
34.1%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
37.9%
Over 2.5 rate
41.8%
22.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
46
2.02
PPG
1.04
54.3%
Win rate
26.1%
39.1%
Draw rate
26.1%
6.5%
Loss rate
47.8%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
45.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
28.3%
Over 3.5 rate
19.6%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
46
History Matches
46
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.41
71.6%
Scoring rate
75.8%
45.3%
BTTS rate
50.5%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.22
84.8%
Scoring rate
69.6%
54.3%
BTTS rate
52.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
95
History Matches
91
1.28
Goals Mean
1.41
1.16
Goals Std
1.27
71.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.8%
35.8%
Scored 2+ rate
36.3%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
17.6%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.92
Goals against per game
1.12
62.1%
Conceding rate
70.3%
0.78
Goals against per game
1.35
58.7%
Conceding rate
78.3%
0.75
Goals against per game
0.33
50.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
95
History Matches
91
0.92
Conceded Mean
1.12
0.89
Conceded Std
0.98
23.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.8%
0.78
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
28.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
41.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
95
History Matches
91
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
1.44
Goal Difference Std
1.73
1.95
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
95
Eligible Matches
90
28
Lead Matches
24
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.79
22
Trailing Matches
21
36.4%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
95
Halftime Coverage Matches
90
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.98
Rest days
76.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
17
Short Rest History Matches
19
1.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.42
63
Normal Rest History Matches
51
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
14
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.75
PPG
2.33
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.75
Current Competition PPG
2.33
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
8
Competition Season Count
9
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.70
Portability PPG Range
1.33
48.20
Portability Score
57.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
95
Clean History Matches
91
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO54.24
PPG0.14
GF-0.12
GA-0.21
PPG-0.58
PPG0.98
PPG0.40
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate19.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.29
Stability score0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate0.6%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate12.6%
Trailing Win Rate8.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.58
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.08
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.37
Portability Score-8.89
Rest days0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.28
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.30
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Current Team ELO54.24
Current Opponent ELO-54.24
Current ELO Difference108.5
Expected score0.15
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance2.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.39

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atletico-MG

L
Gremio2–0Atletico-MG1 Nov · away
Pick: Gremio 43% · hit
L
Atletico-MG0–1Cruzeiro29 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico-MG 47% · missed
L
Flamengo3–2Atletico-MG26 Oct · away
Pick: Flamengo 56% · hit
L
Atletico Torque2–0Atletico-MG21 Oct · away
Pick: Atletico Torque 35% · hit
W
Atletico-MG1–0Coritiba17 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico-MG 50% · hit

Gremio

W
Gremio2–0Atletico-MG1 Nov · home
Pick: Gremio 43% · hit
W
Gremio2–0Atletico Paranaense30 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Paranaense 37% · missed
W
Coritiba0–1Gremio26 Oct · away
Pick: Coritiba 42% · missed
L
Gremio2–4Cruzeiro18 Oct · home
Pick: Gremio 38% · missed
D
Remo1–1Gremio7 Oct · away
Pick: Remo 37% · missed

About this match

Atletico-MG and Gremio meet in Copa Do Brasil on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Atletico-MG win 36.6%, draw 32.1%, Gremio win 31.2%. The pick is Atletico-MG win. Over 2.5 goals: 42.8%. Both teams to score: 47.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.