Atlético Saltillo vs Ciervos
Atlético Saltillo
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ciervos
Match result probability Model pick: Atlético Saltillo win
Atlético Saltillo winPick
37.2%
Draw
32.3%
Ciervos win
30.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.1%
No50.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%
How much we know
Atlético Saltillo history0 matches
Ciervos history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Atlético Saltillo
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 21:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 22:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Atlético Saltillo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Atlético Saltillo are rated 113 Elo points higher
Elo 1,500 against 1,387. On rating alone Atlético Saltillo would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlético Saltillo
Ciervos
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1386.8
0
ELO · Matches
34
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1386.8
1386.8
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
113.2
Current ELO Difference
-113.2
0.66
Expected score
0.34
0
History Matches
34
—
Residual Mean
-0.16
—
Overperformance
40.09
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
0.40
—
Goals for per game
0.80
—
Goals against per game
2.40
—
Win rate
0.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
0.70
—
Goals for per game
0.90
—
Goals against per game
1.90
—
Win rate
10.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
34
—
PPG
0.62
—
Win rate
14.7%
—
Draw rate
17.6%
—
Loss rate
67.6%
—
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
—
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
—
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
16
—
PPG
0.56
—
Win rate
12.5%
—
Draw rate
18.8%
—
Loss rate
68.8%
—
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
—
Over 2.5 rate
43.8%
—
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
0
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
0.65
—
Scoring rate
52.9%
—
BTTS rate
44.1%
—
Goals for per game
0.56
—
Scoring rate
50.0%
—
BTTS rate
37.5%
0
History Matches
34
—
Goals Mean
0.65
—
Goals Std
0.68
—
Scored 1+ rate
52.9%
—
Scored 2+ rate
11.8%
—
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.56
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
2.03
—
Conceding rate
85.3%
—
Goals against per game
1.94
—
Conceding rate
81.3%
0
History Matches
34
—
Conceded Mean
2.03
—
Conceded Std
1.48
—
Conceded 2+ rate
64.7%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
29.4%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.94
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
—
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
—
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
34
—
Result entropy
0.78
—
Goal Difference Std
1.77
—
Stability score
22.41
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
34
0
Lead Matches
6
—
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.56
0
Trailing Matches
17
—
Non-loss rate
17.6%
—
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.32
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.32
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
210.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
19
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.74
0
Long Rest History Matches
14
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.29
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.06
—
Portability PPG Range
0.12
—
Portability Score
89.55
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO113.2
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-34
History Matches-16
History Matches-34
History Matches-34
History Matches-34
Eligible Matches-34
Lead Matches-6
Trailing Matches-17
Halftime Coverage Matches-34
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Long Rest History Matches-14
Current Team ELO113.2
Current Opponent ELO-113.2
Current ELO Difference226.4
Expected score0.31
History Matches-34
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Atlético Saltillo
L
Artesanos Metepec4–0Atlético Saltillo31 Oct · away
Pick: Artesanos Metepec 58% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Ciervos
L
Ciervos0–3FC Santiago31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Santiago 55% · hit L
Acatlan5–3Ciervos24 Oct · away
Pick: Ciervos 48% · missed W
Ciervos3–1Cañoneros Marina17 Oct · home
Pick: Ciervos 46% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Atlético Saltillo and Ciervos meet in Liga Premier Serie A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Atlético Saltillo win 37.2%, draw 32.3%, Ciervos win 30.5%. The pick is Atlético Saltillo win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 49.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.