Auckland FC 2 vs Napier City Rovers
Match result probability Model pick: Auckland FC 2 win
Auckland FC 2 winPick
59.8%
Draw
18.8%
Napier City Rovers win
21.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.2%
No44.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%
How much we know
Auckland FC 2 history28 matches
Napier City Rovers history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Auckland FC 2
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 00:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 01:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Auckland FC 2 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Auckland FC 2 are rated 97 Elo points higher
Elo 1,612 against 1,515. On rating alone Auckland FC 2 would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Napier City Rovers score more
1.89 goals a game over 28 matches for Auckland FC 2, against 2.55 over 20 for Napier City Rovers.
-
Auckland FC 2 concede fewer
Auckland FC 2 concede 0.86 a game, Napier City Rovers 1.45.
-
Napier City Rovers games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Auckland FC 2 matches, against 75% for Napier City Rovers. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Napier City Rovers@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1612.0
ELO
1514.6
28
ELO · Matches
20
1612.0
Current Team ELO
1514.6
1514.6
Current Opponent ELO
1612.0
97.41
Current ELO Difference
-97.41
0.64
Expected score
0.36
28
History Matches
20
0.21
Residual Mean
0.04
62.31
Overperformance
51.86
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.80
2.20
Goals for per game
3.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.95
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.54
Overall performance9 signals 90
28
Matches
20
2.18
PPG
1.50
67.9%
Win rate
45.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
15.0%
17.9%
Loss rate
40.0%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
55.0%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals 100
16
Matches
10
2.44
PPG
1.00
81.3%
Win rate
30.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
10.0%
18.8%
Loss rate
60.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.38
16
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.89
Goals for per game
2.55
89.3%
Scoring rate
90.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
70.0%
2.06
Goals for per game
2.30
93.8%
Scoring rate
80.0%
43.8%
BTTS rate
70.0%
28
History Matches
20
1.89
Goals Mean
2.55
1.26
Goals Std
1.86
89.3%
Scored 1+ rate
90.0%
53.6%
Scored 2+ rate
60.0%
32.1%
Scored 3+ rate
45.0%
2.06
Venue Goals Mean
2.30
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.86
Goals against per game
1.45
57.1%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.80
50.0%
Conceding rate
90.0%
28
History Matches
20
0.86
Conceded Mean
1.45
0.91
Conceded Std
1.02
21.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.0%
7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
10.7%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
6.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
28
History Matches
20
0.77
Result entropy
0.92
1.64
Goal Difference Std
2.36
22.74
Stability score
8.03
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
28
Eligible Matches
20
13
Lead Matches
7
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
1.00
6
Trailing Matches
5
33.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.82
First Half Goals For Mean
1.30
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.25
0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
167.9
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
10
Normal Rest History Matches
8
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
11
Long Rest History Matches
11
2.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.09
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.43
Portability PPG Range
0.60
70.08
Portability Score
62.50
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
28
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO97.41
PPG0.68
GF-0.66
GA-0.59
PPG1.44
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate22.9%
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate40.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches8
Goals Mean-0.66
Goals Std-0.59
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.61
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.59
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate22.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.99
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.13
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.73
Stability score14.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.27
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate13.3%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score7.58
Rest days83.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.20
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO97.41
Current Opponent ELO-97.41
Current ELO Difference194.8
Expected score0.27
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.17
Overperformance10.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Auckland FC 2
L
Auckland FC 22–9Birkenhead United24 Oct · home
Pick: Auckland FC 2 52% · missed L
Cashmere Technical3–0Auckland FC 218 Oct · away
Pick: Cashmere Technical 40% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Napier City Rovers
W
Napier City Rovers5–2Wellington Phoenix II24 Oct · home
Pick: Wellington Phoenix II 42% · missed L
Auckland United7–1Napier City Rovers4 Oct · away
Pick: Auckland United 52% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Auckland FC 2 and Napier City Rovers meet in National League - National on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. The match is played at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Auckland FC 2 win 59.8%, draw 18.8%, Napier City Rovers win 21.4%. The pick is Auckland FC 2 win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.3%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.