Eastern Suburbs vs Cashmere Technical
Match result probability Model pick: Eastern Suburbs win
Eastern Suburbs winPick
40.4%
Draw
20.1%
Cashmere Technical win
39.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.1%
No40.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.9%
Under 2.536.1%
How much we know
Eastern Suburbs history24 matches
Cashmere Technical history19 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Eastern Suburbs
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 18 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 02:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 03:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Eastern Suburbs are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Cashmere Technical are rated 45 Elo points higher
Elo 1,606 against 1,561. On rating alone Cashmere Technical would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Cashmere Technical score far more
1.79 goals a game over 24 matches for Eastern Suburbs, against 3.68 over 19 for Cashmere Technical.
-
Defences are close
Eastern Suburbs concede 1.25 a game, Cashmere Technical 1.26.
-
Cashmere Technical games more often go over 2.5 goals
58% of Eastern Suburbs matches, against 89% for Cashmere Technical. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cashmere Technical@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1561.1
ELO
1606.5
24
ELO · Matches
19
1561.1
Current Team ELO
1606.5
1606.5
Current Opponent ELO
1561.1
-45.41
Current ELO Difference
45.41
0.44
Expected score
0.56
24
History Matches
19
0.13
Residual Mean
0.27
57.28
Overperformance
63.26
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.34
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
3.00
1.40
Goals for per game
4.60
1.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.80
1.40
Goals for per game
3.70
0.90
Goals against per game
0.70
50.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.70
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.49
Overall performance9 signals 90
24
Matches
19
1.92
PPG
2.47
58.3%
Win rate
78.9%
16.7%
Draw rate
10.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
10.5%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
89.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
63.2%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.62
Venue performance10 signals 100
13
Matches
10
1.69
PPG
2.40
46.2%
Win rate
80.0%
30.8%
Draw rate
0.0%
23.1%
Loss rate
20.0%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.04
13
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.79
Goals for per game
3.68
91.7%
Scoring rate
89.5%
66.7%
BTTS rate
57.9%
1.85
Goals for per game
3.40
84.6%
Scoring rate
80.0%
69.2%
BTTS rate
40.0%
24
History Matches
19
1.79
Goals Mean
3.68
1.19
Goals Std
2.27
91.7%
Scored 1+ rate
89.5%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
89.5%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
73.7%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
3.40
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.25
Goals against per game
1.26
75.0%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.54
Goals against per game
1.00
84.6%
Conceding rate
60.0%
24
History Matches
19
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.26
1.01
Conceded Std
1.12
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.1%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.5%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
24
History Matches
19
0.87
Result entropy
0.60
1.55
Goal Difference Std
2.62
12.65
Stability score
39.87
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
24
Eligible Matches
19
10
Lead Matches
13
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.3%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.95
7
Trailing Matches
4
28.6%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
19
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
1.53
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
2.16
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
435.0
Rest days
84.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
16
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.88
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.50
6
Long Rest History Matches
14
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.48
Portability PPG Range
0.71
67.74
Portability Score
58.33
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
24
Clean History Matches
19
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-45.41
PPG-0.56
GF-1.89
GA-0.01
PPG-0.71
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.25
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches5
Goals Mean-1.89
Goals Std-1.08
Scored 1+ rate2.2%
Scored 2+ rate-0.39
Scored 3+ rate-0.49
Venue Goals Mean-1.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean-2.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.30
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches5
Result entropy0.27
Goal Difference Std-1.07
Stability score-27.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.21
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.21
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.24
Portability Score9.41
Rest days350.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.63
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-45.41
Current Opponent ELO45.41
Current ELO Difference-90.81
Expected score-0.13
History Matches5
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-5.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Eastern Suburbs
W
Auckland United1–2Eastern Suburbs31 Oct · away
Pick: Auckland United 50% · missed L
Eastern Suburbs1–4Miramar25 Oct · home
Pick: Miramar 39% · hit L
Wellington Olympic4–0Eastern Suburbs17 Oct · away
Pick: Wellington Olympic 64% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Cashmere Technical
D
Cashmere Technical1–1Auckland City1 Nov · home
Pick: Auckland City 50% · missed W
Ferrymead Bays0–2Cashmere Technical23 Oct · away
Pick: Cashmere Technical 56% · hit W
Cashmere Technical3–0Auckland FC 218 Oct · home
Pick: Cashmere Technical 40% · hit W
Cashmere Technical10–0Wellington Phoenix II4 Oct · home
Pick: Cashmere Technical 51% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Eastern Suburbs and Cashmere Technical meet in National League - National on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 03:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Eastern Suburbs win 40.4%, draw 20.1%, Cashmere Technical win 39.5%. The pick is Eastern Suburbs win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.9%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.