ScoreProb
II Liga - East Poland Round 15 2026

Avia Świdnik vs Hutnik Kraków

Avia Świdnik Home · Elo 1,659
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hutnik Kraków Away · Elo 1,524
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hutnik Kraków win
Avia Świdnik win
31.3%
Draw
20.6%
Hutnik Kraków winPick
48.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.9%
Under 2.534.1%

How much we know

Avia Świdnik history60 matches
Hutnik Kraków history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hutnik Kraków are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Avia Świdnik are rated 134 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,659 against 1,524. On rating alone Avia Świdnik would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Avia Świdnik score far more

    2.43 goals a game over 60 matches for Avia Świdnik, against 1.51 over 72 for Hutnik Kraków.

  • Defences are close

    Avia Świdnik concede 1.27 a game, Hutnik Kraków 1.39.

  • Avia Świdnik games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Avia Świdnik matches, against 53% for Hutnik Kraków. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Avia Świdnik
Hutnik Kraków
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1658.7
ELO
1524.2
60
ELO · Matches
72
1658.7
Current Team ELO
1524.2
1524.2
Current Opponent ELO
1658.7
134.4
Current ELO Difference
-134.4
0.68
Expected score
0.32
60
History Matches
72
0.13
Residual Mean
0.02
60.02
Overperformance
51.61
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.56
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.47
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
72
2.13
PPG
1.32
63.3%
Win rate
36.1%
23.3%
Draw rate
23.6%
13.3%
Loss rate
40.3%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
35
2.13
PPG
1.06
64.5%
Win rate
25.7%
19.4%
Draw rate
28.6%
16.1%
Loss rate
45.7%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
77.1%
67.7%
Over 2.5 rate
48.6%
48.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.3%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
31
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.43
Goals for per game
1.51
98.3%
Scoring rate
68.1%
66.7%
BTTS rate
45.8%
2.52
Goals for per game
1.29
100.0%
Scoring rate
57.1%
61.3%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
60
History Matches
72
2.43
Goals Mean
1.51
1.37
Goals Std
1.55
98.3%
Scored 1+ rate
68.1%
70.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.6%
2.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.39
68.3%
Conceding rate
72.2%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.54
61.3%
Conceding rate
77.1%
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Conceding rate
40.0%
60
History Matches
72
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.20
Conceded Std
1.17
35.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.54
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
1.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
60.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
1.7%
Failed-to-score rate
31.9%
38.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
27.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
72
0.82
Result entropy
0.98
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.05
18.31
Stability score
2.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
71
24
Lead Matches
22
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.86
12
Trailing Matches
21
58.3%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
1.37
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.02
Rest days
76.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
6
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
36
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
19
Long Rest History Matches
27
2.21
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
2.20
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.60
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.26
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.70
Portability PPG Range
1.60
65.38
Portability Score
49.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO134.4
PPG0.81
GF0.92
GA-0.12
PPG-0.40
PPG1.07
PPG-0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate15.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.43
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.92
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate30.3%
Scored 2+ rate28.3%
Scored 3+ rate16.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.09
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate3.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.43
History Matches-12
Result entropy-0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score16.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.82
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate9.8%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate39.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.60
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.90
Portability Score16.18
Rest days1.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.79
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.69
Current Team ELO134.4
Current Opponent ELO-134.4
Current ELO Difference268.9
Expected score0.37
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance8.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Avia Świdnik

L
Chojniczanka Chojnice1–0Avia Świdnik2 Nov · away
Pick: Chojniczanka Chojnice 41% · hit
L
Avia Świdnik0–2Znicz Pruszków25 Oct · home
Pick: Znicz Pruszków 41% · hit
W
Śląsk Wrocław II1–2Avia Świdnik18 Oct · away
Pick: Śląsk Wrocław II 46% · missed
L
Avia Świdnik1–3Lechia Zielona Góra29 Aug · home
Pick: Avia Świdnik 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hutnik Kraków

W
Hutnik Kraków3–2Rekord Bielsko-Biała31 Oct · home
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 63% · hit
L
Hutnik Kraków1–2Olimpia Grudziądz24 Oct · home
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 55% · missed
L
Hutnik Kraków1–2Chojniczanka Chojnice17 Oct · home
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 53% · missed
W
Hutnik Kraków2–1Stal Stalowa Wola29 Aug · home
Pick: Hutnik Kraków 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Avia Świdnik and Hutnik Kraków meet in II Liga - East on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Avia Świdnik win 31.3%, draw 20.6%, Hutnik Kraków win 48.1%. The pick is Hutnik Kraków win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.9%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.